Expanded Australia-Indonesia Talks in Prabowo Albanese Meet
Plus Putin ASEAN invite; big cross-continental military pact; new sanctions hit; high-speed rail buzz; measuring geoeconomic uncertainty and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of expanded middle power talks amid Indo-Pacific flux and wider global implications;
Mapping of regional developments, including Putin ASEAN invite; new China Ream naval base disclosure and partnership elevation outcomes;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as cross-continental defense pact; electric vehicles boom and measuring geoeconomic uncertainty;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new sanctions hit; coming free trade agreement and heightened high-speed rail buzz;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review of a new book that forecasts future scenarios in U.S.-China policy and the effects on Southeast Asia, the Indo-Pacific and the wider world.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,356 words (~11 minutes)
Putin ASEAN Invite; New China Ream Naval Base Disclosure & More
Digital Divides; Twin Ream Realities & Foreign Interest Divergences
“[L]arge regional economies such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, and Indonesia still had fewer data centers per million people compared to major advanced economies and non-regional developing economies such as Brazil and Mexico,” notes a new report from the Asian Development Bank on the challenges and opportunities in regional digital transformation. The report includes bespoke recommendations for varying types of economies, including so-called “high digitalization, low inclusion and sustainability” economies like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam where the priority should be to leverage existing digital infrastructure and skills to close digital divides and decarbonize digital infrastructure (link).
Number of Data Centers in Selected Economies
“[R]ecent photos of progress at a nearby air defense site only raise more questions about the true extent of Beijing’s military presence in the area,” according to a new compilation of satellite imagery published by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative on developments related to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base. The images point to the continued development of China-Cambodia joint defense facilities in Ream even as Cambodian officials continue to maintain that there are no exclusive facilities for China’s military and emphasize the ability of other countries to engage in ship visits (link).
Satellite Imagery of Select Facilities at Ream Naval Base
"Timor-Leste is an interesting case of a small state attracting the interest of many foreign actors – initially due to its underdog status as the world’s newest state and later due to its geostrategic position,” notes a new joint report on the local impacts of foreign interests in East Timor. The report examines the subject with a focus on two specific sectors: police reform on the defense side as well as infrastructure development in the economic realm (link).
Expanded Australia-Indonesia Talks in Prabowo Albanese Meet
What’s Behind It
Australia and Indonesia agreed on new next steps in their comprehensive strategic partnership at an annual leaders summit1. The engagement was prioritized by both sides amid an active week in the foreign policy domain. Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Indonesia for the summit as his first overseas stop after his reelection victory before carrying on to attend the papal inauguration and then heading over to Singapore, part of an effort to signal the continued centrality of Southeast Asia to the government’s second term foreign policy agenda2. Meanwhile, Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto’s schedule meant that the summit engagements ended up being sandwiched amid his continued visits across ASEAN capitals in addition to other global stops, including Brunei and Thailand within the course of the past week3. Some close observers of visit messaging scrutinized the fact that the Indonesian government played up both Prabowo’s limited entourage and its critical significance4.
Recent Regional Developments Surrounding the Australia-Indonesia Summit Meeting
The summit spotlighted the evolving strategic context within which both powers are operating in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. While both sides were keen to publicly signal continuity in advancing bilateral collaboration, officials also concede privately that ties are more challenging to navigate during a shifting strategic landscape in addition to evolving domestic dynamics. Some of this was evident in the visit optics. For instance, while Albanese and his team repeatedly tried to focus engagements on the bilateral relationship including developments following from a recently signed defense pact, one particularly striking round of media engagements included not a single question directly about bilateral ties, with a focus on scrutinizing Indonesia’s alignments with other entities be it previous reports of Russian basing requests or Jakarta’s decision to join the BRICS grouping5. Scrutiny was also placed on the extent of public referencing made to wider Indo-Pacific mechanisms like the Quad, even though the extent to which this manifested itself was not entirely unsurprising6.
Why It Matters
The new initiatives and developments at play also pointed to future datapoints to watch across key priority areas and major pillars (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints to Watch With Global and Indo-Pacific Implications, Including Major Pillars and Key Priority Areas
