What Did Xi Southeast Asia Tour Achieve Past US China Hype?
Plus flashpoint diplomacy; shifting undersea cable balance; new economic security taskforce; shadowy cyber crackdown; rail strategy flux and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the outcomes following China President Xi Jinping’s Southeast Asia tour and wider regional and global developments;
Mapping of regional developments, such as flashpoint diplomacy; military exercise talk and election reshuffle preview;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new economic security taskforce; shifting regional undersea cable balance and coming shadowy cyber crackdown;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including big nuclear funding push; evolving regional rail vision; footprint perception-reality gap and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review of a new book on the likely trajectory of global order and the geopolitical and geoeconomic implications for Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,214 words (~10 minutes)
Flashpoint Diplomacy; Election Reshuffle Preview & More
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"It is regrettable that official development assistance (ODA) decreased in 2024 after five years of continuous growth,” notes an assessment on the state of ODA published by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The OECD report notes international aid from official donors fell in 2024 by 7.1 percent, with the United States. Germany, Britain, Japan, and France being among the top donors within the OECD and some signaling “further, and quite significant, decreases over the coming years” (link).
Official Development Assistance On a Grant Equivalent Basis — Amounts in USD Billions
“What we are witnessing is the remaking of the global economy – not as one integrated system, but as increasingly bifurcated ecosystems centered around the US and China,” Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said in a lecture on the state of the global order and Singapore’s approach to it ahead of the country’s upcoming general election. The lecture addresses components of strategies the country is adopting, including contributing to the shaping of cutting-edge sectors like artificial intelligence and cross-continental trade integration between the EU and CPTPP (link).
“As our nation reflect on these milestones, we should look at the lessons they may hold,” argues the introduction to a special issue of the U.S. Foreign Service Journal which focuses on the 50th anniversary of the fall of Saigon and the 30th anniversary of renewed relations with Vietnam. This includes perspectives from current ambassadors to both countries and other individuals who have previously had a role in the development of ties (link to PDF).
What Did Xi Southeast Asia Tour Achieve Past US China Hype?
What’s Behind It
China President Xi Jinping completed his three-stop Southeast Asia tour in a big week spotlighting Beijing's so-called “neighborhood diplomacy”1. Apart from Xi's stops in Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam, China state media played up tangible cooperation involving nearly all Southeast Asian states beyond Xi’s repetition of a series of talking points on the U.S. “law of the jungle” and “tariff abuse.”2 This included an expansion of the Laos-China railway and the first holding of an Indonesia two-plus two-dialogue which Beijing has sought to replicate elsewhere3. Meanwhile, collaboration with other powers were also at play in Xi’s stops even though they were overshadowed by China-related developments. Japanese ships docked at Cambodia’s China-renovated naval base as expected, while South Korea and Vietnam held ministerial talks that reinforced Seoul’s role as Hanoi’s largest foreign investor4. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim also met with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Thailand, which ASEAN Wonk understands drew concern among some in Washington even though this was in keeping with Malaysia’s evolving approach5.
Select Key Related Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments in China’s Ties With Southeast Asia
Some visit outcomes were notable even though they were unsurprisingly hyped. China played up the visually impressive quantitative aggregate upwards total of over 100 agreements signed across the three legs of the visit, which belies the reality that many of these pacts build on past areas of collaboration6. Perhaps more notable were previously discussed qualitative gains in individual stops, be it a China-Malaysia “2+2” diplomatic and defense dialogue or the launch of a China-Vietnam railway cooperation mechanism7. Xi’s trip also looked ahead to datapoints China may utilize in its Southeast Asia engagement into 2026 and beyond. This includes its holding of the rotational chairmanship of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) in 2026 before Vietnam does so in 2027 as well as the rotating leadership of what is widely regarded the China-led Lancang-Mekong Cooperation minilateral framework8.
Why It Matters
The trip also pointed to specific initiatives to watch in the future across key domains amid evolving regional and global dynamics (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Notable Outcomes, Details and Domains To Watch in the Future After Xi’s China Southeast Asia Tour
