Southeast Asia in the Israel-Hamas War Spotlight: First ASEAN-GCC Summit Highlights Wider Middle East Links
Southeast Asia in the Israel-Hamas War Spotlight: First ASEAN-GCC Summit Highlights Wider Middle East Links
Plus China's Belt and Road; India's Act East diplomacy; US-Philippine alliance cooperation and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to this edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! For this iteration, we are looking at:
Assessing Southeast Asia’s Middle East stakes beyond the Israel-Hamas war spotlighted during the first-ever regional summit between ASEAN and Gulf countries;
Mapping of regional developments including Southeast Asian state presence at China’s Belt and Road forum, India’s ongoing Act East diplomacy and more;
Charting evolving trends such as on the danger of tech fragmentation; alliance collaboration and related issues;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments including new cyber security deals; ASEAN’s electric vehicle race; railway inroads and more;
And much more!
WonkCount: 1,415 words (~7 minutes reading time)
Southeast Asia at China’s BRI Forum; India Acting East; Myanmar’s Mekong Illicit Scam Fallout & More
Southeast Asia in the Israel-Hamas War Spotlight: First ASEAN-GCC Summit Highlights Wider Middle East Links
What’s Behind It
ASEAN countries held the first-ever summit meeting with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The summit, coordinated by Malaysia and with Indonesia as this year’s ASEAN chair, was held on October 20 in Saudi Arabia’s capital of Riyadh. The GCC comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates1.
While the summit occurred amid the Israel-Hamas war, planning was in the works long before that and it is more broadly reflective of wider connections between Southeast Asian countries and those of the Middle East as well as limited ASEAN-GCC collaboration to date2. Southeast Asia’s links to the Middle East extend far beyond interests of the two major Muslim-majority countries Indonesia and Malaysia or the Israel-Palestine issue, which has unsurprisingly consumed much of the Muslim world in part due to the salience it has on the street as well as the statements given by veteran political figures such as Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim. The stakes also extend across domains — from the welfare of overseas workers to opportunities in economic growth and defense trade (see a list of country pairings below with recent developments). That said, ASEAN-GCC cooperation is still at its early stages, with steps such as a short-term action plan in the early 2010s and ministerial meetings before COVID-19 hit3.
Select Southeast Asia Country Developments with Middle Eastern States in 2023
Why It Matters
While institutional links are quite basic at present, both groupings issued a framework for cooperation and commited to a regularization of summit-level meetings to reenergize ties. The ASEAN-GCC Framework for Cooperation from 2024 to 2028 gives a nod to political-security and socio-cultural realms like counterterrorism and information but is heavily focused on economic areas, with an emphasis on exploring opportunities in trade, agriculture, energy and tourism4. The joint statement affirms that the two groupings have agreed to hold a summit every two years and will also host the first ASEAN-GCC Economic and Investment Conference in Riyadh sometime during the first half of 20245.
Apart from the regional interactions, the two sides addressed regional and global issues including developments in Gaza and Southeast Asian leaders also enhanced bilateral ties on the sidelines. The leaders issued a five-point statement on developments in Gaza that condemned civilian attacks; supported dispute resolution efforts of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern states; and called for restraint, peace, hostage releases and civilian protections6. The bilateral discussion points between ASEAN countries, summit host Saudi Arabia as well as other GCC nations were also testament to the diversity of interests at play. They highlighted sectors such as tourism, energy, religion, trade and labor (see select areas and discussion points in the table below).
Select Bilateral Discussion Points and Highlighted Areas During ASEAN-GCC Summit
Where It’s Headed
With the summit now concluded, the focus will shift to follow-up work. Both sides have laid out some signposts for the immediate future, with the economic and investment conference in 2024 and then the next summit set to coincide with Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship year in 2025. Yet close observers will note that efforts at strengthening institutional collaboration have slipped in the past, with some of the same initiatives such as a trade pact floated but not taking off. Events of the past few weeks have shown that geopolitical shifts in the Middle East can consume policymakers, and ties and coordination within the GCC have also had their share of challenges, including tensions with Qatar just a few years ago. Momentum on implementation will need to be sustained beyond Malaysia’s chairmanship.
Both the framework and joint statement also acknowledge the wide range of touchpoints for ties where other opportunities and challenges may lie. These include transportation; labor mobility; human resource development; smart city partnerships; capacity-building for entrepreneurs and startups involving marginalized communities. Both sides also acknowledged ongoing or upcoming global developments involving the Gulf states, including the UAE’s hosting of COP 28, Qatar’s hosting of the International Horticultural EXPO 2023 and Saudi Arabia’s bid to host the 2034 World Cup.
The Danger of Tech Fragmentation; Tracking Alliance Cooperation & Measuring Derisking Fallout
“The alternative would be fragmentation – distinct, mutually exclusive technology stacks that cannot comprehend or communicate with one another. Some of us may remember what this looked like – in the 1990s…visitors to Japan found their mobile phones incompatible with Japan’s mobile networks, and had to buy a separate phone for Japan,” Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat warned in a wide-ranging keynote address at this year’s Singapore International Cyber Week (link).
“[W]hile progress on EDCA implementation was brought to a standstill during the prior administration of Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippine military undertook significant infrastructure upgrades at the five bases designated as EDCA sites in 2016,” notes a new analysis by the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative which combines public reporting and satellite imagery. The analysis examines work on the initial sites and touches on the additional ones publicly disclosed earlier this year as well (link).
Mapped Evolution of Basa Air Base as an EDCA Site
“The other Southeast Asia region experiences a large loss of 9.1 percent because it is highly open with strong trade links with China and the OECD economies…therefore, the demand for its exports is falling enough to induce a large GDP contraction, with significant negative spillovers on the domestic economy,” notes an attempt to quantify the economic effects of friendshoring and reshoring in the IMF’s latest Regional Outlook for Asia and the Pacific (link).
Projected GDP Losses from Friend-Shoring and Re-Shoring Scenarios
New Cyber Security Deals; ASEAN’s EV Race; Future Railway Inroads & Much More
