New Russia Upgrade Hype With Indonesia After Putin Meet
Plus first trilateral drills; China takeover fears; new digital lawsuit; first free trade zone; coming port plans; carbon credit map and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a new Russia upgrade hype in Southeast Asia following a summit meeting;
Mapping of regional developments, such as first trilateral drills and a new Mekong subregional partnership;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as China takeover fears; new digital lawsuit and fresh investment magnet buzz;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including first free trade zone; carbon credit map and Indo-Pacific port plans;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review of a new book Indo-Pacific blue security futures and evolving crisis fears.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,148 words (~10 minutes)
First Trilateral Deals; New Mekong Partnership & More
New Arms Risk Fears; Critical Minerals Forecast & Conflict Anxieties
"The region that received the largest volume of transfers of major arms in 2020–24 was Asia and Oceania,” notes the latest iteration of the 2025 yearbook released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI notes Asia and Oceania accounted for 33 percent of all arms transfers between 2020 and 2024, followed by those in Europe (28 percent), the Middle East (27 percent), the Americas (6.2 percent) and finally Africa (4.5 percent) (link).
World Military Spending Regional Snapshot — Total Spending and Percentage Change
“With extraction in Southeast Asia, potential resource development in India, and advanced processing in Japan and Korea, the Asia region has potential to become a regional critical minerals hub,” argues a new outlook on global critical minerals released by the International Energy Agency. The report forecasts that by 2040, Southeast Asia’s mining market value is projected to reach $110 billion, with refined materials at $70 billion (link).
Share of Global Mined Production and Reserves and Market Value of Key Energy Minerals for Select Asian Markets Excluding China
"Given that Rohingya armed groups are still building up their strength and the November truce appears to be fraying, there is an opportunity to reverse some of the dangerous pro-armed struggle rhetoric fuelling recruitment among Bangladesh’s refugee population," notes a new report released by the International Crisis Group on the dangers of a Rohingya insurgency. The report suggests several recommendations including improving living conditions via cross-border aid and trade as well as the pursuit of dialogue between the Arakan Army and Rohingya civilian leaders (link).
Graphic on Control of Rohingya Refugee Camps in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar District
New Russia Upgrade Hype with Indonesia After Putin Meet
What’s Behind It
There has been hype around an upgrade of Indonesia-Russia ties after President Prabowo Subianto’s meeting with Vladimir Putin. Indonesian officials were on overdrive to correct the narrative that Prabowo’s Russia visit constituted a snub of the Group of Seven (G7), denying that, as one Indonesian official put it, “Indonesia is parting ways with the West.”1 But the fact that Prabowo himself had to clarify this directly in keynote speech illustrated the practical challenges policymakers face in navigating a multipolar world around which the theme of the Russia-hosted forum in St. Petersburg was centered2. This applies to Russia as well which has its own share of limitations. Russian officials have also had to manage responses to intra-ASEAN developments amid their wider regional ambitions, including the situation in Myanmar and messaging around how diplomats are attending ongoing partner briefings amid the escalating Thailand-Cambodia border row3.
Select Recent Regional Developments in Russia-Southeast Asia Relations Amid Prabowo-Putin Summit
The upgrade hype comes amid multiple rounds of speculation around potential Kremlin advances despite limits in ties. On the defense side for instance, where Moscow has been making no shortage of headlines over the past year, a basing access request had dominated headlines back in April even as periodic developments like exercises quietly continued into this month under the banner of the 75th anniversary of ties4. Putin to his credit was candid about underperforming economic ties in his remarks, even though a glaring mistake in the publicized media statement referring to Indonesia as “one of our leading South Asian” foreign trade partners — which did not go unnoticed among regional observers — had not been corrected at the time that this was written (see screenshot below)5.
Why It Matters
The state of play also points to future datapoints to watch in Russia’s wider relations with Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN across key priority areas and pillars (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints to Watch in Russia Southeast Asia Relations, With Key Partners and Major Developments
