Minus One Echo and Trump Risk in Southeast Asia 2026 Outlook
Plus new ASEAN chairmanship 2026 kickoff; new semiconductor roadmap; big artificial intelligence block; coming China geoeconomic expansion and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic datapoints to watch in Southeast Asia’s outlook for the rest of 2026 and into 2027;
Mapping of regional developments including new ASEAN chair 2026 kickoff and twin cross-continental partnership meets;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as big artificial intelligence block; coming China geoeconomic expansion and special economic zone blueprint;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new semiconductor roadmap; coming security pact; sectoral disinformation differentials and more;
And much more!
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,027 words (~9 minutes)
New ASEAN Chair 2026 Kickoff; Twin Partnership Meets & More
2026 Top Risks; Quantifying Geoeconomic Relevance & Foreign Policy Engagement Futures
“But AI can’t live up to investors’ expectations in the short term,” according to the latest iteration of an annual risk assessment published by Eurasia Group. The risk assessment includes projections on a range of subjects including Europe, U.S.-China ties, tariffs, trade, and “state capitalism” (link).
“In a world that is becoming ever more divided, Indonesia’s strength will be shaped not only by what it does on its own, but by how intelligently it uses ASEAN as a strategic lever to grow faster and stronger,” argues a new op-ed by Indonesia trade ministry’s former director general of international trade negotiations and WTO ambassador published over at The Jakarta Globe (link).
Table Depicting Select Measures of ASEAN Importance to Indonesia
“Abolishing the restraints could allow Japan to export lethal equipment to countries like the Philippines, whose maritime security is being challenged by China,” argues a new commentary published over at nippon.com on the key elements Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will need to look to for a successful foreign policy approach in 2026 (link).
Minus One Echo and Trump Risk in Southeast Asia 2026 Outlook
What’s Behind It
Singapore Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong noted practical challenges in a theoretical “world minus one” (or “G-minus-one” world) without the United States in remarks on Southeast Asia’s outlook through 2026, referencing a term popularized by economist Joseph Stiglitz1. His comments came amid attention to the twin current subregional flashpoints of the Myanmar crisis and Thailand-Cambodia tensions as well as more reactions to U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which have so far cautiously come largely in the form of ministerial statements and media responses rather than from sitting leaders apart from notable exceptions like Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim2.
The uncertainty over Southeast Asia’s outlook came as key powers begin to shape their engagement for 2026. Apart from U.S. and China statements around the Mekong-U.S. Partnership (rebranded during the first Trump administration) and the “spirit” of the Global Security Initiative, announcements related to pending interactions like Japan-Philippines foreign minister consultations this coming week as well as preparations ahead of expected leader talks between Australia and East Timor signal a busy set of engagements as the Philippines also charts out the rest of its ASEAN chairmanship calendar3.
Select Key Recent Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments in Southeast Asia
Why It Matters
The development also highlights future datapoints to watch and wider regional and global implications (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how future dynamics play out).
Future Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Datapoints to Watch in Southeast Asia Outlook, Along with Priority Areas and Select Key Issues
