Disputed China South China Sea Plan Slammed by Philippines
Plus BRICS summitry; big military purchase rollout; new digital plan release; first-of-its-kind agreement; major carbon policy breakthrough and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a disputed South China Sea plan and wider regional and global strategic implications;
Mapping of regional developments, such as BRICS summitry and a notable high-level defense partnership engagement;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends including new digital plan outline; big carbon first; and military purchase rollout;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including surveillance contagion; mining U-Turn; and breakthrough pact;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of the first book-length study of its kind on battling giant scam centers.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,165 words (~9 minutes)
BRICS Summitry; Defense Partnership Meeting & More
Infiltration Warning; Dynastic Dynamics & Landlinked Ambitions
“As law enforcement in Southeast Asia continues to crackdown on scam centers, the movement into Timor-Leste demonstrates the resilience of the industry and its ability to strategically adapt,” warns a new alert issued by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) on the spread of giant scam centers in the region and beyond. The alert notes other notable trends including the exploitation of citizenship-by-investment schemes and shell companies (link).
Graphic Illustrating Network Linked to Cambodia Scam Centers Trying to Exploit Region of Oecusse-Ambeno
“Yet despite Marcos Jr.'s efforts to focus on policy and ignore the Dutertes, public discourse-- both on social media and in traditional outlets-- remains dominated by issues that favour the Dutertes,” according to a series of assessments on the future outlook in the Philippines after 2025 midterm elections published in the journal Contemporary Southeast Asia. The contributions also highlight other dynamics beyond the Duterte-Marcos divide, including a so-called “rising third force” of pro-democracy youth and progressives (link).
"Cut off from any direct access to maritime routes, the nation is banking on its dry ports, which are hoping to elevate the predominantly mountainous state bordered by five countries into an alternative, quicker gateway for trade with the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe," according to an interview published over at The Business Times on Laos’ efforts to leverage dry port connectivity and commercial partnerships to transform itself from a “landlocked” to “landlinked” nation (link).
Graphic Displaying Select Key Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Corridors
Disputed China South China Sea Plan Slammed by Philippines
What’s Behind It
The Philippines and its partners quickly slammed China’s plans for a so-called “national nature reserve” in a disputed South China Sea feature in another round of concern over Beijing’s behavior1. The controversial plan came as top Philippine officials engaged in key dialogues both in the country and across the Indo-Pacific region. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. referenced in a first-of-its-kind Manila Strategy Forum the country’s commemoration of Maritime and Archipelagic Nation Awareness Month and fisherfolk welfare in an effort to frame the South China Sea stakes in a more comprehensive lens beyond daily harassment or illegal, coercive, aggressive and dangerous actions (ICAD)2. Meanwhile, apart from a wide range of bilateral sideline meetings, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro framed his remarks at this year’s iteration of the Seoul Defense Dialogue around the notion of “responsible competition” and the need for trust-driven dialogue3.
Select Key Recent Geopolitical Developments Amid China “Nature Reserve” South China Sea Announcement
While China’s use of such rationales is not surprising, it nonetheless feeds into uncertainty in parts of the region around flashpoint management. The overall outlines of China’s South China Sea behavior broadly speaking — including the rhythm of Beijing’s actions tied to unilateral measures like the so-called “annual fishing moratorium” and accompanying state media coverage — have continued thus far in 20254. But concerns have risen around what one official characterized to ASEAN Wonk at a regional engagement earlier this month as the growing risk of “cross-regional flashpoint convergence” around a series of issues including but not limited to Taiwan and the South China Sea as both the United States and China navigate the global stakes at play in their wider bilateral relationship. Philippine defense officials for their part have cautioned privately in engagements this past year about waves of “maritime disinformation,” which require speedy, coordinated responses to counter a mix of exaggerated fears and trial balloons in addition to actual events5.
Why It Matters
The recent developments and the fallout from them also point to future policy pathways to watch across major partners with wider regional as well as global implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
New Cooperation Developments and Major Partners, Alongside Notable Additional Details
