New Border Row Rocks Thailand Cambodia Ties Amid ICJ Claim
Plus new BRICS expansion inroads; world’s first digital tech law; new transshipment warning; coming AI data center; power price hike woes and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a new intraregional border row and its wider regional implications;
Mapping of regional developments, such as BRICS expansion inroads; Indo-Pacific alliance activity and new Kremlin voyage;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as world’s first tech law claim; big transshipment warning and new vessel launch;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including mining suspension; telecom fears; carbon pricing realities and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our new episode of the ASEAN Wonk Podcast featuring a former senior Australian diplomat on AUKUS, ASEAN and the country’s Southeast Asia futures;
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,126 words (~10 minutes)
New BRICS Expansion Inroads; Kremlin Voyage & Much More
Confidence Intervals; Vision Futures & Measuring Industrial Policy Success
"Among the United States’ East Asian allies, there is little confidence in Trump’s ability to handle U.S. relations with China,” notes a new survey released by the Pew Research Center. The survey of 24 countries found that in addition to a general lack of confidence in handling international issues, six-in-ten of adults or more in Japan and South Korea express little or no confidence in Trump on this issue, and about three-quarters of Australians lack confidence in Trump to handle relations between the U.S. and China (link).
Median Percentage Who Have Confidence/No Confidence in Handling Of International Issues
“It will be during the Philippines’ ASEAN Chairmanship when this first taste will be experienced by the people of Member States,” notes an interview on the future prospects for the grouping’s new twenty-year community building plan ASEAN Vision 2045 which reiterates that “ the test of the pudding is in the eating.” The account also notes some differences among member states, including the rejection of proposed revisions to the ASEAN Charter during earlier rounds of deliberations (link).
“China still remains highly dependent on foreign companies in many critical sectors, including biomedicine drugs, high-end machine tools and machinery, commercial aircraft, and cutting-edge semiconductors,” according to a report by the Rhodium Group assessing the success of Made in China 2025. The report notes a “duality” between China’s slowing growth at home and its remarkable surge in capabilities that is driving its competitiveness and innovation on a global scale including in Southeast Asia (link).
Percentage Share of US Business Survey Respondents By Sector Indicating Chinese Competitors Have Caught Up or Will Catch Up Within a Number of Years
New Border Row Rocks Thailand Cambodia Ties Amid ICJ Claim
What’s Behind It
A new intraregional border row showed few signs of a quick resolution this weekend with two-day boundary talks between Thailand and Cambodia1. Tensions have continued to simmer over this past week between the two countries after an initial May 28 skirmish in what is one of several instances in mainland Southeast Asia of unresolved border disputes that periodically continue to flare up. These cross-border subregional dynamics have been visible in other instances over the past year, with cases in point including Cambodia’s withdrawal from a trilateral Mekong mechanism to Thailand’s management of differences with other ASEAN member states over conflict in bordering Myanmar. As one former senior ambassador and official put it vividly to ASEAN Wonk, despite the tendency for these border issues to be dismissed as “hibernating” issues, they “can spark into something that will rupture” the bilateral relationship2.
Recent Related Developments Amid Ongoing Thailand-Cambodia Border Row
The talks also spotlighted the challenging domestic, regional and global context for both countries. Cambodia has been keen to assert its position of potential involvement from the International Court of Justice even as officials recognize this may only exacerbate its existing troubles calibrating ties with all four of its top trading partners — by one count China, Vietnam, the United States and Thailand respectively — while the Thai government has also struggled to stabilize its borders abroad as it tries to quell yet another round of speculation at home around the contours of a cabinet reshuffle3. Hopes by optimists on both sides about this weekend’s boundary talks were dashed by what ASEAN Wonk understands were fierce disagreements over even basic questions such as how to characterize and publicize what was discussed in meeting minutes4.
Why It Matters
The state of play also points to future datapoints to watch across key priority areas and pillars (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints to Watch Amid Border Row, Including Major Domains and Priority Areas
