What Xiangshan Forum 2025 Reveals About Asia Security Stakes
Plus new geoeconomic pact launch; coming artificial intelligence tool; database kickoff; project renegotiation chatter; big aviation deal; and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of engagements at Beijing Xiangshan Forum 2025 and regional and global implications;
Mapping of regional developments, such as new geoeconomic pact launch and quiet Kremlin exercise kickoff;
Charting evolving geopolitical and geoeconomic trends such as coming artificial intelligence tool; database kickoff and project renegotiation chatter;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including coming trade pact; big aviation deal; infrastructure pause and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our latest episode of the ASEAN Wonk Podcast featuring a former Trump administration official on China; Taiwan; South China Sea; Southeast Asia partnerships and more.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,048 words (~9 minutes)
New Geoeconomic Pact; Quiet Kremlin Exercise & More
Green Stakes; Scam Syndicates & Peace Prospects
“Asia Pacific has the most to gain from reaching net-zero, and the most to lose from this not happening fast enough,” according to a new report from the firm Deloitte on climate policy stakes for the region in global perspective. The report notes that achieving net-zero ambitions has the potential to grow the economy of the Asia-Pacific by almost $50 trillion by 2070 but at the same time requires efforts to scale up emerging technologies, build new industries and unlock $80–$90 trillion in investment by 2050 (link).
Snapshot Graphic Representing Comparative Select Asia-Pacific Future Technology Fuel Readiness Levels
"Across the complex conflict geography of Myanmar, the only reliable partners in meaningfully dismantling the scam centres have been resistance-aligned groups,” argues a new report on scam centers in Myanmar published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The report notes that real enduring success in countering the scam industry requires engagement with groups beyond the state in Myanmar, while “continued engagement with the Burmese junta only further enables scamming while the sector is considered an existential necessity by the junta leaders” (link).
"Now, the peace process for the far south is once again in limbo, likely delayed until after the next general election,” notes a new commentary published over at Stratsea on the ongoing insurgency in southern Thailand. The piece argues that peace efforts by Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thus far have been “a story of promise and perseverance, continuously unravelled by the political fortunes of its neighbour,” in reference to multiple leadership changes in Thailand since Anwar took office (link).
Visualization of Growth of Scam Compound Developed and Built-Up Areas Along the Thai Border
What Xiangshan Forum 2025 Reveals About Asia Security Stakes
What’s Behind It
China’s convened the latest iteration of the Beijing Xiangshan Forum which featured ministerial participation from several Southeast Asian states1. While there were some notable misses in contrast to China’s public messaging of an aggregate attendance surge, this year’s proceedings featured some degree of representation from all but one Southeast Asian country and notable senior-level participation as well just weeks after China had convened headline-grabbing Shanghai Cooperation Organization summitry in Tianjin earlier this month2. As some officials rightly observed, the focus on the Xiangshan Forum also meant that other notable China-Southeast Asia developments flew under the radar, with a case in point being new deliverables adopted at a key subregional security engagement this past week3.
Select Key Recent Regional Security Developments Amid 2025 Xiangshan Forum
The deliberations shed light on evolving perceptions of the security environment in Asia and various flashpoints. In striking comments that did not go unnoticed amid the deliberations, ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn, who had attended the SCO engagements as well, noted in his remarks at the Xiangshan Forum that principles in China’s newly-launched Global Governance Initiative “align closely with ASEAN’s own longstanding commitments” and that ASEAN could work with China and others to provide “a strong counterbalance” to rising unilateralism, fragmentation and protectionism4. Malaysia’s Defense Minister Khaled Nordin honed in more specifically on both the regional and global stakes at play in the South China Sea and in addition to echoing calls for responsible rivalry management, also noted rather pointedly that lasting trust cannot be built on rhetoric or jargon5.
Why It Matters
The developments also point to priority policy datapoints to watch across major countries with wider regional as well as global implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Priority Policy Datapoints, Alongside Key Countries and Major Representatives
