ASEAN-China-GCC Summit Hype Amid New Trilateral Initiative
Plus rising decoupling fears; coming cyber law; first artificial intelligence bill; quiet crypto shift; trade deal preview; forecast woes and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of China’s moves following the first ASEAN-China-GCC Summit and wider global implications;
Mapping of regional developments, including growing decoupling fears; military pact advance and shifting institutional membership stakes;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as coming cyber law; first artificial intelligence bill and forecast woes;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including trade deal preview; quiet crypto shift and new financial framework;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review of a new book on new “geotechnography” risks in the ASEAN digital age.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,236 words (~10 minutes)
Military Pact Advance; Growing Decoupling Fears & More
Beyond Made in China 2025; Growing Geoeconomic Anxieties & Rising Conflict Divergences
“China is competing with both advanced and emerging economies…the policy is now more focused on the broad-based strengthening of manufacturing and the leveraging of cross-sectoral technologies,” according to a new commentary on moving beyond Made in China 2025 (MIC25) by the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). The commentary argues that while MIC25 set specific targets for priority sectors, China’s industrial policy has evolved into a comprehensive initiative aimed at developing a robust industrial base and ecosystem across all sectors and positions in the value chain (link).
Share of China National and Provincial Level Policies Which Mention Key Terms
“Once you have reciprocal tariffs — country-by-country — every economic agreement becomes a bilateral arm-wrestling match. Not only does this mean a rapid expansion in the number of economic agreements, but it also means a world where might means right and…small states like Singapore would obviously be at a disadvantage,” Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said during a speech at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C while on his first trip to the United States after Singapore’s recent general election. He also expressed continued concern about wider global trends such as economic bifurcation and the state of the nuclear non-proliferation regime (link).
“[T]hailand is leaning toward China’s approach, focusing on de-escalating conflict through trade, and economic incentives," per a new report on Thailand’s approach to Myanmar released by ISP-Myanmar. The report argues that Thailand can adopt a “Thread-the-Needle act” to secure its interests which include securing its border, addressing humanitarian concerns and resolving the armed conflict to achieve sustainable peace. It also notes some divergences between the positions of Bangkok and Beijing, including in degree of influence on conflict actors (link).
Key Cited Report Differences Between China and Thailand Positions on Myanmar
ASEAN-China-GCC Summit Hype Amid New Trilateral Initiative
What’s Behind It
China played up its rolling out of a new trilateral visa scheme for ASEAN and Gulf countries after a first-ever ASEAN-China-GCC summit held during Malaysia’s recent chairing of ASEAN meetings and the launch of the grouping’s new community-building vision out to 20451. One official told ASEAN Wonk the visa scheme in fact represented more of a “patchwork” of measures building on existing Chinese initiatives in this space, rather than a new trilateral coordinated ASEAN-China-GCC initiative as it has been portrayed in state media2. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that Beijing has unsurprisingly been keen to portray this as a new mechanism to oppose what Chinese Premier Li Qiang characterized at the summit as a laundry list of “isms” — most notably unilateralism, protectionism and hegemonism, with a clear reference to the United States even if Washington is not directly mentioned by name3.
Select Recent Geopolitical & Geoeconomic Developments Related to Southeast Asia Amid ASEAN-China-GCC Summit Aftermath
China’s initiative and ASEAN-China-GCC triangular collaboration has fed into a broader conversation around new configurations of innovative cross-continental cooperation in a more multipolar and contested global order. As Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim succinctly put it recently, individual headlines like the ASEAN-China-GCC summit are just part of broader ASEAN attempts at “widening its strategic aperture” as part of “holding its ground” in a fractured world4. While there are questions around the sustainability of ambitious ASEAN-wide initiatives of this kind that need to be built out across multiple chairmanships, the widening strategic aperture Anwar referenced is also visible across individual Southeast Asian states. Indeed, despite the hype around ASEAN-China-GCC trilateralism, regional states were also involved in engagements around an array of mechanisms within the past week alone, with one case in point being attendance at an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) meet where accession requires meaningful economic reform.5
Why It Matters
The new initiatives and developments at play also pointed to future datapoints to watch across key priority geopolitical and geoeconomic focus areas (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints to Watch Following Aftermath of ASEAN-China-GCC Summit, Along With Major Pillars and Key Priority Areas
