Review: Conflict Futures in Asia Beyond Russia-Ukraine War
Former army major general reveals new lessons and innovations for the future of conflict and rising Indo-Pacific stakes emerging from the Russia-Ukraine War.
A recent book by a former army major general reveals new lessons and innovations for the future of conflict and rising Indo-Pacific stakes emerging from the Russia-Ukraine War.
WonkCount: 1,257 words (~6 minutes)
Review: Conflict Futures in Asia Beyond Russia-Ukraine War
Context
“The situation Taiwan has been in since last year resembles the conditions before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” a senior official noted earlier this year1. The comments were just one of many that highlight how in spite of public and private government engagements with Russia and Ukraine to varying degrees as seen in the recent ASEAN-Russia summit in Kazan, broader strategic questions continue to loom over how the Russia-Ukraine War may affect military strategy and conflict futures. These include policy debates over the lessons being internalized by China’s military as well as quieter global conversations across communities such as drone manufacturers on supply chains and modern warfare2.
Select Key Recent Global and Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Developments
A recent book The War for Ukraine by former Australian army major general Mick Ryan argues that there are already lessons emerging from the Russia-Ukraine War that could have major implications for the future of war including in the Indo-Pacific region3. In doing so, it provides a rare book-length practitioner’s view that situates the Ukraine war within a broader historical and global perspective of military strategy, in addition to other accounts based on ground reporting such as Yaroslav Trofimov’s Our Enemies Will Vanish4. “[T]he People’s Liberation Army is not the only military institution far from Europe that is studying the war,” the book cautions before delving into some of the key lessons and innovations that are likely to drive changes in the character of future conflict5.
Analysis
The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).
Change Datapoints to Watch, Along With Select Strategic Areas And Major Military Aspects
