For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of new partnerships at play in the recently concluded round of ASEAN meetings;

• Mapping of regional developments, such as a new China dialogue mechanism and a key security agreement signing;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as cable launch; strategic trade move and expanding underground economy;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including missile deal; geoeconomic reversal; mobility spotlight and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out the latest ASEAN Wonk Podcast episode earlier this week with a former government official on what lies ahead on the South China Sea, the US-Philippines alliance and much more.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,348 words (~11 minutes)

New China Dialogue; Security Agreement Signing & More

Critical Minerals Checkpoint; Mekong Choice Spotlight & Proliferation Cascade Worries

• “Recent investments, particularly in rare earths, have supported some diversification of ownership,” according to the latest iteration of the International Energy Agency’s global critical minerals outlook which notes regional developments such as production increases in Malaysia and Indonesia’s evolving global significance in areas such as nickel (link).

Share of Refined Material Production by Country Over the Past Year vs. Top Producer Share in 2023

• “This ambitious development has significant strategic geopolitical, economic, hydrological, environmental and social ramifications,” argues a new commentary published by The Bangkok Post on the potential cross-border and regional challenges posed by a new dam project recently agreed on between Laos and Myanmar (link).

• “To maintain a stable nuclear balance and a credible American nuclear umbrella, Indo-Pacific allies like Australia will have to step up in new and innovative ways,” argues a new report published by the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security on alliance collaboration in this space and steps to enhance strategic deterrence (link).

New Partnerships Push At 2026 ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meets

What’s Behind It

• Southeast Asia ministers and key powers convened for the latest round of ASEAN-related senior meetings which took place alongside several flashpoint-related developments1. Of particular note was evolving responses to South China Sea skirmishes between Manila and Beijing over the past week just ahead of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s annual State of the Nation Address (SONA), including publicizing of a phone call between Marcos and U.S. President Donald Trump which explicitly noted that Trump “will take up the concerns of the Philippines in his next meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.”2 This follows what officials have previously privately characterized as quieter U.S.-Philippine alliance activation efforts including response to the positioning of a Chinese platform earlier this year3.

Select Key Recent Geopolitical Developments Related to Southeast Asia Amid Recent Round of ASEAN Meetings

• The meetings also saw officials discussing ideas for geoeconomic collaboration in response to global crises. To take just one example that flew largely under the radar relatively speaking, there was renewed discussion about new pathways for emergency assistance for countries struggling to manage the fallout from Middle East conflict, including more targeted, sectoral avenues4. These conversations occurred alongside announcements that highlighted intensifying global interest in engaging Southeast Asia regionally from the other parts of the world, such as the official elevation of Turkey as one of just 12 full dialogue partners (following the UK’s post-Brexit addition in 2021) as well as Germany and Qatar as sectoral partners within a tiered partnership system5.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted policy datapoints to watch with wider implications (see two separate, originally generated ASEAN Wonk tables below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

New Policy Datapoints, Along With Strategic Dimensions And Key Partners

Read more

INTRODUCTION

ASEAN Wonk: Welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, where we bring you expert insights and regional perspectives on Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific geopolitics and geoeconomics. I’m your host Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. If you haven’t already, do subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk platform at www.aseanwonk.com so you don’t miss our full posts.

Our guest today is Julio “July” Amador, who was a civil servant in the Philippine government for more than a decade and now helps lead various organizations, including Fulbright Philippines, the Foundation for the National Interest, and FACTS Asia. We’ll start our conversation talking through current developments, including the South China Sea arbitral tribunal ruling anniversary and major power developments during the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship. Be sure to stay tuned as we go through a range of other subjects, including the future of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, minilateral networking and evolving domestic political dynamics in the Philippines.

Note: The transcript that follows the above free clip preview has been lightly edited for clarity and organized into sections for ease of quick browsing. For all ASEAN Wonk Podcast episodes, full video and audio podcasts, along with edited and sectioned transcripts as well as block quotes, will be a premium product for our paying subscribers, but we will include a short free transcript preview and a clip for all readers to maintain accessibility. Paying subscribers can find the rest of the full transcript and the full video podcast right below the paywall. If you have not already, do consider subscribing, and, if you have already done so and like what you see and hear, do consider forwarding this to others as well who may be interested. Thank you for your support as always!

SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER THE RULING ANNIVERSARY

ASEAN Wonk: So welcome to the podcast July, and let’s start, if we can, on the South China Sea with us having seen recently the July 12th tribunal decision anniversary on the Philippines’ South China Sea case. You convened one of several commemorative events, and if I’m not mistaken, this is the first Track 1.5 initiative of its kind focused on ASEAN perspectives on this question outside of the Philippines held in Jakarta. We spoke a little bit earlier and you were saying it’s really important to engage more on this topic with respect to other Southeast Asian states, and also view this from a little bit more of a comprehensive perspective, looking at this not just from a security prism – whether it’s the South China Sea or the first island chain or the Taiwan Strait. What is your sense of how the anniversary played out and the regional perceptions on the ground on that front based on your conversations?

Julio Amador: Well, first of all, Prashanth, thank you for the invitation to join your podcast, and, of course, hello to all the listeners of ASEAN Wonk. I’m really glad to be here and, of course, to answer all of these questions related to the arbitral tribunal anniversary. This is the tenth anniversary of a very important and critical ruling, not only for the Philippines, but for the Southeast Asian region in general and also, of course, for those of us who advocate for international law. And now the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea is a very important framework for Southeast Asia because many of us are archipelagic and maritime countries, and as such, we need the rule of law to govern our occasionally feisty relationships not only within ASEAN, but also with our neighbors, including those neighbors that may not be directly within the boundaries of our region but have an enduring interest in the safety and the security of the maritime areas, and, of course, the sea lines of communication.

So we organized the conference in Jakarta because I personally believe that the Philippines needs to convince but even listen to its neighbors in Southeast Asia with regard to the arbitration. Because if you recall the history of it in Southeast Asia, the Philippines launched this initiative, these proceedings against China in The Hague. One of the common complaints that you would hear is that the Philippines did not consult its Southeast Asian neighbors. That, I think, was a legal strategy. But now that we have this award, it’s very clear from those who are experts on international law that, first of all, this award is binding particularly on the Philippines and China. But at the same time, the award can become normative for the region because its many rulings can apply to the various maritime boundary delimitations and features in the various contested maritime domains within Southeast Asia and their immediate neighbors. In fact, we know that Indonesia has been using the ruling for negotiations with its own neighbors for their boundary delimitation. So we believe that the Philippines has a special task in convincing the region about the righteousness of this award and how that is applicable as a way of peacefully settling disputes within ASEAN and within the wider Southeast Asia. So this is why we believe that the commemorative conference would have had more impact if it was held outside of the Philippines and if it would consider also views not only from ASEAN, but even from our other neighboring countries. So that was the reason behind this initiative.

ASSESSING THE PHILIPPINES ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP YEAR SO FAR

ASEAN Wonk: Just to double click a bit on the point you made on the regional dimension of Philippine foreign policy: we’ve just seen the recent round of ministerial meetings playing out with the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship this week. Obviously, it’s one of several factors – as you know having served in government before – of Philippine foreign policy, and if we define it comprehensively, this is one of several facets of Philippine foreign policy. How would you assess or what are the metrics you would use to analyze the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship so far?

Julio Amador: That’s a great question because we’re halfway there when it comes to the chairmanship. And some things to be remembered. First of all, the Philippines did volunteer to chair earlier because of Myanmar. So that has to be factored in when it comes to assessing whether the Philippines has been successful or not. But I think, in general, I would say that, facing a plethora of crises through its chairmanship – you have South China Sea, you have Myanmar, you have the Middle East crisis, including among others, the energy crisis that it has sparked – I think I sometimes wonder how the Philippine government is getting through all of this. Because, of course, you do not foresee crises happening, right, at the start of your chairmanship? But when this happens, you have to be agile enough to take them into account and that they have to be prioritized as well given the bigger and wider implications of those crises, not only on the Philippines, but on the wider region. And when all of these crises are hitting you, prioritizing becomes an issue.

So in that sense, also running government while chairing ASEAN I would think is a double challenge for those who are chairing ASEAN. And as you have seen, Philippine domestic politics is not the most boring in the region. With that being said, with those caveats, I believe the Philippine chairmanship is going as well as it could. Handling not only the daily concerns of ASEAN, but also the crisis moments that have been emerging that I have discussed earlier. But people forget that managing ASEAN is a very complex process. You’re looking at trying to balance some of the most powerful countries in the world, right? I mean, in many ways, in using many metrics, you have the United States, China, Russia, and then you have the European Union, of course, you have Japan, India, Australia, and so on. These are not easy tasks. The challenge of trying to bridge the gap or trying to convene great powers with various interests so to speak, and with differing purposes as to why they participate in Southeast Asian affairs is a daunting task for any country, and I don’t think the Philippines is an exception to that.

So having said all of that, the process has been going on well enough to be able to say that there have been some concrete accomplishments, right? On the ASEAN economic front, you have the adoption of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, which is critical and which has been something that the Philippines has wanted to accomplish. Now on the political security front, despite the many challenges, I think the Department of Foreign Affairs has been doing some hard work, for example, on Myanmar. And, of course, there will always be disagreements on how it’s going to be done, but it’s not as if it’s the Philippines that holds the key to many of these problems. We don’t even want to talk about the Thai-Cambodian disputes precisely because both countries have different ways of approaching it. And this is a criticism of ASEAN. ASEAN doesn’t seem to be the first point of reference for trying to manage the disputes. Now I think the more important question is what happens to the proposed code of conduct? And I, for one, don’t foresee that coming this year. But I think we also have to appreciate the efforts being given by all of the negotiating states, including among others monthly meetings to try to come up with something solid on this front. Of course, I don’t think it’s going to happen – having an actual code – but I think the process is as important as the outcome in this case.

ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE US-PHILIPPINE ALLIANCE

ASEAN Wonk: The other piece you referenced a little bit earlier as well with respect to the conversation about major power dynamics is the U. S.-Philippine alliance itself. What is your sense of how the alliance is evolving thus far and the mix of inroads relative to challenges? In terms of the defense sites, in terms of foundational security agreements, in terms of traction on flashpoint management, I think we have seen progress. If you look at things like the Luzon Economic Corridor, if you look at minilateral security networking with Japan and other countries, they’ve moved slower than some alliance advocates would have liked. What’s your assessment of how the alliance is doing thus far beyond everyday flashpoint management and those narrower metrics?

Julio Amador: Oh boy am I going to get in trouble with some of the things I’m going to say, but what’s life without these things? Yeah. I mean, look. Some officials have described the alliance as something on hyperdrive right? I mean, it’s consistently going out there, strongest it’s ever been. And I don’t deny that particularly in the defense and military relationship – in those particular aspects, I don’t deny the strength of the alliance. And I agree that it’s the strongest that it’s ever been and that the coordination on that front has evolved to an extent that I couldn’t have imagined ten years ago. So I do believe that on the military relationship, things are very positive.

Now the question I’ve always had is about alliance management because there are no strong or concrete institutional aspects to alliance management, and some of these are quite nascent. The bilateral strategic dialogue (BSD) was put in place about a decade ago precisely to provide senior level management over alliance relations right? And the BSD was always a prelude to the two plus two ministerial meeting which provides the highest levels of alliance management so far – if you look at the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) itself, you don’t see any of those mechanisms because what we have in the Mutual Defense Treaty is a council of foreign ministers – but given the evolving character of the challenges that the alliance is facing, having a two-plus-two I would argue is a better mechanism. Please remember that if we look at the MDT strictly, the two-plus- two was never envisioned – but, you know, we deal with what we are given – having the BSD in place is quite important because that senior level management over alliance matters is quite critical. There was a joke before that the problem with the Philippine-US alliance that it was left to the hands of colonels because of the Mutual Defense Board and Security Engagement Board. And these are very capable colonels, mind you. What has always been missing is the policy oversight, and the alliance has managed to create this in the process over the years to respond to the challenges. And slow to be sure, but, you know, it’s better organized than before, I would say.

WHAT TO WATCH AHEAD ON SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY INTO 2027

ASEAN Wonk: The point you made earlier about where the alliance is and where flashpoint management is on South China Sea and ASEAN leads to the question of upcoming datapoints. President Marcos is going to have his State of the Nation Address (SONA) in the next few days were he’ll outline a series of priorities for the rest of the year into 2027. But from more foreign and security policy lens, what are you watching in terms of data points for the rest of the year into 2027 beyond the headlines of the day?

Julio Amador: Yeah, and I think…

[Note: This is the end of a free preview podcast, with the full version in an earlier post published on July 23, 2026 available to our paying subscribers. This is not meant to serve as new content and is part of our free preview content within the dedicated website podcast section].

ASEAN Wonk: Welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, where we bring you expert insights and regional perspectives on Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific geopolitics and geoeconomics. I'm your host Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. If you haven’t already, do subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk platform at www.aseanwonk.com so you don’t miss our full posts.

Our guest today is Julio “July” Amador, who was a civil servant in the Philippine government for more than a decade and now helps lead various organizations, including Fulbright Philippines, the Foundation for the National Interest, and FACTS Asia. We’ll start our conversation talking through current developments, including the South China Sea arbitral tribunal ruling anniversary and major power developments during the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship. Be sure to stay tuned as we go through a range of other subjects, including the future of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, minilateral networking and evolving domestic political dynamics in the Philippines.

Note: The transcript that follows the above free clip preview has been lightly edited for clarity and organized into sections for ease of quick browsing. For all ASEAN Wonk Podcast episodes, full video and audio podcasts, along with edited and sectioned transcripts as well as block quotes, will be a premium product for our paying subscribers, but we will include a short free transcript preview and a clip for all readers to maintain accessibility. Paying subscribers can find the rest of the full transcript and the full video podcast right below the paywall. If you have not already, do consider subscribing, and, if you have already done so and like what you see and hear, do consider forwarding this to others as well who may be interested. Thank you for your support as always!

SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER THE RULING ANNIVERSARY

ASEAN Wonk: So welcome to the podcast July, and let’s start, if we can, on the South China Sea with us having seen recently the July 12th tribunal decision anniversary on the Philippines’ South China Sea case. You convened one of several commemorative events, and if I’m not mistaken, this is the first Track 1.5 initiative of its kind focused on ASEAN perspectives on this question outside of the Philippines held in Jakarta. We spoke a little bit earlier and you were saying it’s really important to engage more on this topic with respect to other Southeast Asian states, and also view this from a little bit more of a comprehensive perspective, looking at this not just from a security prism – whether it’s the South China Sea or the first island chain or the Taiwan Strait. What is your sense of how the anniversary played out and the regional perceptions on the ground on that front based on your conversations?

Julio Amador: Well, first of all, Prashanth, thank you for the invitation to join your podcast, and, of course, hello to all the listeners of ASEAN Wonk. I’m really glad to be here and, of course, to answer all of these questions related to the arbitral tribunal anniversary. This is the tenth anniversary of a very important and critical ruling, not only for the Philippines, but for the Southeast Asian region in general and also, of course, for those of us who advocate for international law. And now the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea is a very important framework for Southeast Asia because many of us are archipelagic and maritime countries, and as such, we need the rule of law to govern our occasionally feisty relationships not only within ASEAN, but also with our neighbors, including those neighbors that may not be directly within the boundaries of our region but have an enduring interest in the safety and the security of the maritime areas, and, of course, the sea lines of communication.

So we organized the conference in Jakarta because I personally believe that the Philippines needs to convince but even listen to its neighbors in Southeast Asia with regard to the arbitration. Because if you recall the history of it in Southeast Asia, the Philippines launched this initiative, these proceedings against China in The Hague. One of the common complaints that you would hear is that the Philippines did not consult its Southeast Asian neighbors. That, I think, was a legal strategy. But now that we have this award, it’s very clear from those who are experts on international law that, first of all, this award is binding particularly on the Philippines and China. But at the same time, the award can become normative for the region because its many rulings can apply to the various maritime boundary delimitations and features in the various contested maritime domains within Southeast Asia and their immediate neighbors. In fact, we know that Indonesia has been using the ruling for negotiations with its own neighbors for their boundary delimitation. So we believe that the Philippines has a special task in convincing the region about the righteousness of this award and how that is applicable as a way of peacefully settling disputes within ASEAN and within the wider Southeast Asia. So this is why we believe that the commemorative conference would have had more impact if it was held outside of the Philippines and if it would consider also views not only from ASEAN, but even from our other neighboring countries. So that was the reason behind this initiative.

THE PHILIPPINES ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP YEAR SO FAR

ASEAN Wonk: Just to double click a bit on the point you made on the regional dimension of Philippine foreign policy: we’ve just seen the recent round of ministerial meetings playing out with the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship this week. Obviously, it’s one of several factors – as you know having served in government before – of Philippine foreign policy. How would you assess or what metrics would you use to analyze the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship so far?

Julio Amador: That’s a great question because we’re halfway there when it comes to the chairmanship. And some things to be remembered. First of all, the Philippines did volunteer to chair earlier because of Myanmar. So that has to be factored in when it comes to assessing whether the Philippines has been successful or not. But I think, in general, I would say that, facing a plethora of crises through its chairmanship – you have South China Sea, you have Myanmar, you have the Middle East crisis, including among others, the energy crisis that it has sparked – I think I sometimes wonder how the Philippine government is getting through all of this. Because, of course, you do not foresee crises happening, right, at the start of your chairmanship? But when this happens, you have to be agile enough to take them into account and that they have to be prioritized as well given the bigger and wider implications of those crises, not only on the Philippines, but on the wider region. And when all of these crises are hitting you, prioritizing becomes an issue.

So in that sense, also running government while chairing ASEAN I would think is a double challenge for those who are chairing ASEAN. And as you have seen, Philippine domestic politics is not the most boring in the region. With that being said, with those caveats, I believe the Philippine chairmanship is going as well as it could. Handling not only the daily concerns of ASEAN, but also the crisis moments that have been emerging that I have discussed earlier. But people forget that managing ASEAN is a very complex process. You’re looking at trying to balance some of the most powerful countries in the world, right? I mean, in many ways, in using many metrics, you have the United States, China, Russia, and then you have the European Union, of course, you have Japan, India, Australia, and so on. These are not easy tasks. The challenge of trying to bridge the gap or trying to convene great powers with various interests so to speak, and with differing purposes as to why they participate in Southeast Asian affairs is a daunting task for any country, and I don’t think the Philippines is an exception to that.

So having said all of that, the process has been going on well enough to be able to say that there have been some concrete accomplishments, right? On the ASEAN economic front, you have the adoption of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, which is critical and which has been something that the Philippines has wanted to accomplish. Now on the political security front, despite the many challenges, I think the Department of Foreign Affairs has been doing some hard work, for example, on Myanmar. And, of course, there will always be disagreements on how it’s going to be done, but it’s not as if it’s the Philippines that holds the key to many of these problems. We don’t even want to talk about the Thai-Cambodian disputes precisely because both countries have different ways of approaching it. And this is a criticism of ASEAN. ASEAN doesn’t seem to be the first point of reference for trying to manage the disputes. Now I think the more important question is what happens to the proposed code of conduct? And I, for one, don’t foresee that coming this year. But I think we also have to appreciate the efforts being given by all of the negotiating states, including among others monthly meetings to try to come up with something solid on this front. Of course, I don’t think it’s going to happen – having an actual code – but I think the process is as important as the outcome in this case.

THE STATE OF THE US-PHILIPPINE ALLIANCE

ASEAN Wonk: The other piece you referenced a little bit earlier as well with respect to the conversation about major power dynamics is the U. S.-Philippine alliance itself. What is your sense of how the alliance is evolving thus far and the mix of inroads relative to challenges? In terms of the defense sites, in terms of foundational security agreements, in terms of traction on flashpoint management, I think we have seen progress. If you look at things like the Luzon Economic Corridor, if you look at minilateral security networking with Japan and other countries, they’ve moved slower than some alliance advocates would have liked. What’s your assessment of how the alliance is doing thus far beyond everyday flashpoint management and those narrower metrics?

Julio Amador: Oh boy am I going to get in trouble with some of the things I’m going to say, but what’s life without these things? Yeah. I mean, look. Some officials have described the alliance as something on hyperdrive right? I mean, it’s consistently going out there, strongest it’s ever been. And I don’t deny that particularly in the defense and military relationship – in those particular aspects, I don’t deny the strength of the alliance. And I agree that it’s the strongest that it’s ever been and that the coordination on that front has evolved to an extent that I couldn’t have imagined ten years ago. So I do believe that on the military relationship, things are very positive.

Now the question I’ve always had is about alliance management because there are no strong or concrete institutional aspects to alliance management, and some of these are quite nascent. The bilateral strategic dialogue (BSD) was put in place about a decade ago precisely to provide senior level management over alliance relations right? And the BSD was always a prelude to the two-plus-two ministerial meeting which provides the highest levels of alliance management – if you look at the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) itself, you don’t see any of those mechanisms because what we have in the Mutual Defense Treaty is a council of foreign ministers – but given the evolving character of the challenges that the alliance is facing, having a two-plus-two I would argue is a better mechanism. Please remember that if we look at the MDT strictly, the two-plus- two was never envisioned – but, you know, we deal with what we are given – having the BSD in place is quite important because that senior level management over alliance matters is quite critical. There was a joke before that the problem with the Philippine-US alliance that it was left to the hands of colonels because of the Mutual Defense Board and Security Engagement Board. And these are very capable colonels, mind you. What has always been missing is the policy oversight, and the alliance has managed to create this in the process over the years to respond to the challenges. And slow to be sure, but, you know, it’s better organized than before, I would say.

WHAT TO WATCH AHEAD ON SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY INTO 2027

ASEAN Wonk: The point you made earlier about where the alliance is and where flashpoint management is on South China Sea and ASEAN leads to the question of upcoming datapoints. President Marcos is going to have his State of the Nation Address (SONA) in the next few days were he’ll outline a series of priorities for the rest of the year into 2027. But from more foreign and security policy lens, what are you watching in terms of datapoints for the rest of the year into 2027 beyond the headlines of the day?

Julio Amador: Yeah, and I think…

CONTINUED TRANSCRIPT AND FULL VIDEO PODCAST EPISODE FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of several regional states joining a new China-initiated artificial intelligence body;

• Mapping of regional developments, including big exercise launch and expanding economic partnership;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as geoeconomic pact first; joint defense declaration and new aviation deal;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including rare earths criticism; digital uptake; media first hype and more;

• And much more!

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,347 words (~11 minutes)

Big Exercise Launch; Expanding Economic Partnership & More

Regional Links; Maritime Disruptions & Disinformation Realities

• “[W]e must do more and turn our existing strengths into power,” warns a new strategy document released by the European Union this month that also characterizes the security of the Indo-Pacific and Europe as “more interlinked than ever” due to dynamics such as China’s assertive behavior across the Taiwan Strait and in the South and East China Seas (link to PDF).

• “For Asia, there is no safe harbor…the resumption of shipping alone cannot restore the confidence that has been lost,” according to a report released by The Asia Group consulting firm on the regional implications of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz which includes five Southeast Asia emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as Asia’s four largest economies (China, India, Japan and South Korea) (link to PDF).

• “[R]esilience in the information domain cannot rest on governments alone,” cautions a new explainer released by the Australian Strategy Policy Institute think tank on potential cooperation between Australia and Japan on state-linked disinformation including areas such as narrative tracking, attribution thresholds and crisis protocols (link).

China AI Body Nets Southeast Asia Gains in Global South Bid

What’s Behind It

• Some Southeast Asian states were included on the list of countries that joined as founding members of a China-initiated global artificial intelligence grouping during a series of meetings held in Shanghai this past week1. The development was unsurprisingly cast as being the latest datapoint in the storyline of competing U.S.-China mechanisms in the artificial intelligence domain in the Global South and the world more generally, with Washington continuing to develop initiatives of its own including a recently publicized new ministerial dialogue with Southeast Asian states2.

Select Key Recent China Related Developments with Southeast Asia Alongside World AI Conference

• The engagements came alongside other related sectoral developments in the region. While China was keen to highlight new capacity-building announcements coming out of the AI engagements in Shanghai this past week, Beijing also had to simultaneously respond to allegations by the Philippines surrounding AI-generated material depicting the Filipinos as monkeys concerning the 2016 South China Sea arbitral tribunal award anniversary, which Chinese officials portrayed in response as not being an official government act3. Meanwhile, in mainland Southeast Asia, Vietnam led a stream of regional announcements with its bid to host an international AI competition out to 2027 with partners including the UN, following the recent release of designated high-risk AI systems in sectors like critical infrastructure and autonomous driving4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted policy datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

New Policy Datapoints, Along With Major Artificial Intelligence Areas And Select Key Actors

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of commemorations around the tenth anniversary of the South China Sea arbitral tribunal award and their strategic implications;

• Mapping of regional developments, including new Indo-Pacific summit diplomacy and new dialogue partner status in Southeast Asia;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new artificial intelligence risk disclosure; illegal China influence claim; and coming military space center development;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including twin China infrastructure inroads; major rare earths partnership launch and new media ecosystem metrics and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a new book by a longtime government advisor on futures in US military strategy and implications for individual regions including the Indo-Pacific.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,278 words (~10 minutes)

Indo-Pacific Summit Diplomacy; New Dialogue Partner Status & More

Diverging Global Investment Patterns; Partnership Futures & Cyber Accountability Mechanisms

• “Investment has stalled in Europe, shifted in the United States, and pulled away from the pack in China,” according to a new report by the McKinsey Global Institute which examines diverging global investment patterns and levers for countries to boost competitiveness including changes in production factors, innovation, specialization (link).

Graphic Showing Gross Productive Investment by Economy and Sector (By Percent)

• “Southeast Asia’s digital economies are booming, yet a gap persists between ambitious growth and the tools and frameworks needed to govern cyberspace responsibly,” argues a new report released by the Stimson Center on cyber accountability — focused on Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam — suggesting a number of recommendations across areas like capacity-building and international law (link).

• “Japan will advance these efforts by working closely with the partner countries, including Timor-Leste to provide the cooperation tailored to their needs and continue to fulfill its responsibilities in building an international order,” according to a new commentary published by Japan’s ambassador to Timor-Leste in the country’s official state run news agency TATOLI addressing the state of bilateral ties within the context of evolving regional dynamics including Japan’s own update to its free and open Indo-Pacific approach under the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (link).

New South China Sea Statement Marks Arbitral Award Milestone

What’s Behind It

• A joint statement by over a dozen countries was among a series of datapoints commemorating a key datapoint in the South China Sea disputes1. The marking of the tenth anniversary of the 2016 arbitral tribunal award — accompanied by commemorative engagements in some key Indo-Pacific capitals as well as in the Philippines featuring top officials including President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — came amid a series of other global maritime-related developments. This included the adoption of a new resolution on protecting vital shipping lanes co-sponsored by dozens of other countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore from within Southeast Asia, with the objective being deemed as “never been more critical” reflecting regional anxieties on this front2.

• The development came alongside wider scrutiny around flashpoint management. Regionally, Southeast Asian ministers have had to address concerns around the lack of specific timelines and benchmarks being used to hold Myanmar’s government accountable amid scheduled informal consultations this past week leading up to the next round of ASEAN summitry later this year3. Globally, there have also been a flurry of statements released from some Southeast Asian governments following a return this past week to hostilities between Iran and the United States, following earlier attention to aspects such as the extent and degree of representation from individual Southeast Asian countries at the state funeral for Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Policy Datapoints, Along With Select Issue Aspects And Key Domains

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WonkCount: 1,247 words (~6 minutes)

Review: The Future of US Defense Strategy And Asia Stakes

Context

“The United States plays an important role in maintaining the regional balance of power,” Thailand’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said in public remarks as part of a postponed visit to the recently renamed Pacific Command in Hawaii1. The trip, which came following a series of U.S. 250th anniversary commemorations during the previous week, highlighted ongoing questions around the future of U.S. defense strategy and the stakes for Asia including regions such as Southeast Asia2.

Select Key Recent U.S.-Related Security Developments Concerning Asia

A timely new book To Dare Mighty Things by longtime government advisor and scholar Michael O’Hanlon provides insights into how Asia may fit into shifting U.S. defense strategy futures3. In doing so, it adds to a series of recent books delving deeper into the dynamics of U.S. defense strategy both in general as well as with respect to individual flashpoints, including ones we have reviewed previously on ASEAN Wonk. “The stretch of continuity…may be changing,” the book notes before going on to define some of the dimensions of continuity and change and suggested futures for U.S. defense policy in key global regions including Asia4.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Notable Additional Details, Along With Future Policy Approaches And Key Defense Dimensions

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a new “might makes right” alert call issued at a key recent forum;

• Mapping of regional developments, including new strategic partnership addition and first ministerial dialogue;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as megaproject recalibration; new fighter jet deal and cross-border project delay;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including submarine cable bid; cyber command kickoff and new trade deal;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a recent book from a former army major general on new lessons and innovations that could shape regional and global conflict futures.

This Week’s WonkCount: 1,947 words (~9 minutes)

New Strategic Partnership Addition; First Ministerial Voyage & More

Fragmentation Realities; Artificial Intelligence Safeguards & Indo-Pacific Expertise Spotlight

• “[W]hen it comes to the details of implementation, alignment among EU capitals is still lacking,” argues a new report released by the European Think-Tank Network on China which includes survey data on how European countries are navigating China’s as a technological power (link).

Visualization of Survey Findings on Country Willingness to Use Policy Tools to Manage Relations with China

• “As AI agents…increasingly carry out tasks autonomously and at speed beyond practical human intervention, financial institutions need real-time safeguards,” according to a new white paper released by the Monetary Authority on Singapore along with key financial institutions and fintechs (link).

Depiction of AI Agent and Ecosystem Safeguards for Agentic Finance at Runtime or SAFR

• “Despite 15 years of emphasis on the growing threat posed by China and the strategic importance of the broader Indo-Pacific region across presidential administrations, focus on the theater among the U.S. armed Services remains uneven,” notes a new study released by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments on regional expertise in the U.S. armed forces (link).

New Might Makes Right Alert at 2026 Asia-Pacific Roundtable

What’s Behind It

• A new alert on the rise of “might makes right” approaches was issued at a key regional forum this past week1. The alert by Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at this year’s iteration of the Asia-Pacific Roundtable (APR) in Kuala Lumpur — following from other expressions of anxiety by regional officials earlier this year — came alongside other events convened in the regional calendar this past week2. These included expert working group meetings under the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) banner as well as the holding of a global conference on sustainable development ahead of IMF and World Bank meetings scheduled to be hosted in Bangkok later this year as well3.

Select Key Recent Geopolitical and Geoeconomic-Related Developments in Southeast Asia

• The alert also highlighted shifting flashpoint dynamics at play with wider Indo-Pacific and global implications. On the outlook for key regional geopolitical flashpoints for instance, Anwar argued that recent leader engagements had revealed that “the devil is in the details” with respect to a long-mulled regional South China Sea code of conduct with China and that there was the necessity for a “more pragmatic” approach to Myanmar by Southeast Asian states amid other “geopolitical and geoeconomic fluctuations” that have been increasingly consuming the region4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted ongoing policy dynamics and details with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Additional Details, Along With Ongoing Policy Dynamics And Select Strategic Issues

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WonkCount: 1,257 words (~6 minutes)

Review: Conflict Futures in Asia Beyond Russia-Ukraine War

Context

“The situation Taiwan has been in since last year resembles the conditions before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” a senior official noted earlier this year1. The comments were just one of many that highlight how in spite of public and private government engagements with Russia and Ukraine to varying degrees as seen in the recent ASEAN-Russia summit in Kazan, broader strategic questions continue to loom over how the Russia-Ukraine War may affect military strategy and conflict futures. These include policy debates over the lessons being internalized by China’s military as well as quieter global conversations across communities such as drone manufacturers on supply chains and modern warfare2.

Select Key Recent Global and Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Developments

A recent book The War for Ukraine by former Australian army major general Mick Ryan argues that there are already lessons emerging from the Russia-Ukraine War that could have major implications for the future of war including in the Indo-Pacific region3. In doing so, it provides a rare book-length practitioner’s view that situates the Ukraine war within a broader historical and global perspective of military strategy, in addition to other accounts based on ground reporting such as Yaroslav Trofimov’s Our Enemies Will Vanish4. “[T]he People’s Liberation Army is not the only military institution far from Europe that is studying the war,” the book cautions before delving into some of the key lessons and innovations that are likely to drive changes in the character of future conflict5.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Change Datapoints to Watch, Along With Select Strategic Areas And Major Military Aspects

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of new expansion talk at a key trade agreement meeting;

• Mapping of regional developments, including strategic partnership review and coming chairmanship showcase;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as semiconductor center launch; infrastructure competition and trade deal talk;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including submarine contract hype; cyber alliance; currency pact & more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a new book on China’s rule-making in the global geoeconomic order.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,157 words (~10 minutes)

Partnership Review; Chairmanship Showcase & More

Coercion Targeting; Expanding Diplomacy & Indian Ocean Stakes

• “The targeted entities include both foreign governments and foreign private firms,” notes a new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research on the differential impacts of countries targeting government and foreign private firms for geoeconomic coercion (link).

Depiction of Hegemonic Geoeconomic Coercion Model

• “Diversification…reflects an effort to widen Malaysia’s economic options,” according to a new analysis of Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s recent stops in Russia and Central Asia and the implications for the country’s economic diplomacy (link).

“The strategic significance of the Indian Ocean remains overlooked and under-conceptualized in national defense strategy,” argues a new commentary recently published by the Perth USAsia Center as part of a broader op-ed series on Australia’s stakes in the Indian Ocean within the wider Indo-Pacific (link).

New Geoeconomic Expansion Talk at 2026 CPTPP Trade Meet

What’s Behind It

• Geoeconomic expansion was among the agenda items in the spotlight during the recent meeting of members of the trade agreement known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)1. The meeting took place alongside several other regional and global geoeconomic developments as the dust settled following the recent Russia-ASEAN summit held in Kazan2. Among them was the convening of the latest in the annual calendar of World Economic Forum meetings held in Dalian, China, featuring closely watched remarks by business leaders and officials including China’s premier Li Qiang3.

Select Key Recent Indo-Pacific and Global Geoeconomic Developments Amid New CPTPP Meet

• The meeting saw officials take stock of global and Indo-Pacific stakes in key geoeconomic sectors. These included explicit recognition of Japan’s energy security initiatives in Southeast Asia following the Middle East conflict fallout over the past few months as well as the vulnerabilities of small-island developing countries in the Pacific Islands to significant global supply chain disruptions4. These stakes have also been at play in wider discussions among officials, including how best to reach and revise narrower, sector-specific understandings that can help to more flexibly account for new geoeconomic realities5.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Future Policy Datapoints to Watch, Along With Select Major Priorities And Key Focus Areas

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WonkCount: 1,293 words (~6 minutes)

Review: China Rule Making in the Global Geoeconomic Order

Context

Speaking earlier this month at the ASEAN Future Forum in Vietnam, China’s ambassador to ASEAN Wang Qing unsurprisingly played up the future promise of the U.S.-China formula of “constructive strategic stability” for the region and the wider world, while also making clear Beijing’s own global initiatives across economic and governance areas1. His remarks and later responses to audience questions — including references to lessons learned from his past posting in Sierra Leone — highlighted how China’s diplomats and officials are seeking to shape narratives around Beijing’s regional and global contributions in a shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic context2.

Select Key Recent Global and Indo-Pacific Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments

A new book China and the Global Economic Order by scholars Gregory T. Chin and Kevin P. Gallagher sheds light on Beijing’s growing role as a rule maker within the global geoeconomic order3. In doing so, it adds to recent book-length works focusing on China’s evolving approach to regional and global institutions, including ones we have reviewed recently on ASEAN Wonk. China and the Global Economic Order — co-authored by a former diplomat and a policy advisor — argues that a focus on individual China-led proposals or dueling U.S.-China initiatives obscures the broader reality that Beijing is actively working with countries in the Global South both within and beyond existing structures to fuel momentum for consequential institutional changes4. “Through their hybrid efforts, China and other Southern nations are gradually bringing about transformational changes in the global economic order,” the book argues before elaborating on what these changes are and how they may evolve in the coming years5.

Analysis

The book also highlights key future implications to watch (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Future Implications to Watch, Along With Select Policy Manifestations And Major Global Roles

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a recently concluded summit meeting Russia hosted with Southeast Asian states;

• Mapping of regional developments, including a newly announced diplomatic first and a dispute team unveiling;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as rising cyber attacks; shifting competitiveness and new AI cooperation;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including base upgrade talk; gas find hype; trade pact checkpoint and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our new ASEAN Wonk review of a book which includes exclusive interviews with Indonesian leaders on the management of geopolitical and geoeconomic competition.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,438 words (~11 minutes)

New Diplomatic First; Dispute Team Unveiling & More

Export Control Regimes; New Defense White Paper & Education Futures

• “The increasing use of export controls as ‘offensive economic tools’ risks diverting resources and political attention from non-proliferation and international security objectives,” cautions a new commentary published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published alongside the recent holding of Group of Seven (G7) engagements in France (link).

• “The Defense White Paper Update 2026 represents a deliberate recalibration of our defense strategy in response to an increasingly complex, contested and uncertain security environment,” according to the foreword of Brunei’s recently-released defense white paper update following the previous edition that had been released back in 2021(link to PDF).

• “Over the last twenty years alone, more than 50 new policy schools have been established across Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, developing new models of governance and public policy education,” according to a new edited volume published by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy on the future of public policy schools which includes perspectives from 58 contributors (link).

What Did the New Russia-ASEAN Summit Meeting Achieve?

What’s Behind It

• A new ASEAN-Russia summit hosted by President Vladimir Putin in Kazan spotlighted shifting ties between Moscow and Southeast Asian states1. One diplomatic source familiar with the summit dynamics noted that apart from substantive agenda items, certain metrics on optics were notable such as the degree of leader-level representation at the summit meeting, which was relatively higher than had earlier been speculated on during the early stages of talks on the engagement2. Developments unfolded amid earlier concerns expressed on this front by some other ASEAN dialogue partners, including from European countries given fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war and U.S. diplomats in regional capitals assessing Moscow’s bid to capitalize on Middle East conflict fallout.

Select Key Recent Global and Southeast Asia-Related Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments

• The summit dynamics also highlighted the mix of challenges and opportunities inherent in Russia’s regional engagement. Putin unsurprisingly played up convergence on a “multipolar order” and Russia’s willingness “to provide every possible assistance” to Southeast Asian states during the “situation surrounding Iran,” with Moscow also adding more engagement touchpoints with the inclusion in the summit of the secretary general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as well as the chair of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Board3. At the same time, geoeconomically, virtually every engagement Putin held with visiting Southeast Asian leader saw one or both sides make direct or indirect references to the massively unrealized economic potential of ties on metrics ranging from trade balances to business-to-business linkages4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Policy Datapoints, Along With Select Major Outcomes And Key Contours

Read more

WonkCount: 1,347 words (~6 minutes)

Review: US-China Shift in Prabowo’s Indonesia Post-Jokowi?

Context

“The current geopolitical dynamics are quite uncertain…we do not know who is a friend and who is a foe,” Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto noted earlier this month in remarks on the country’s evolving foreign policy direction1. Prabowo’s remarks were just the latest designed to respond to intensifying scrutiny in recent months on perceived departures from the country’s traditional free and active foreign policy and the long list of overseas visits under his tenure relative to his predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s two terms from 2014 to 20242.

Select Global and Indo-Pacific Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments

A new book Ruling Indonesia by scholar Marcus Mietzner leverages interviews with top officials including Jokowi and Prabowo as well as extensive research to raise questions about the future of Indonesia’s management of geopolitical and geoeconomic competition, with implications for Global South leaders and the wider world3. In doing so, it adds to recent book-length scholarly works that delve deeper into the views of Indonesia’s leaders over the past decade or so such as Ben Bland’s Man of Contradictions4. Ruling Indonesia acknowledges the many tradeoffs Indonesia’s leaders face in managing proliferating domestic and international challenges that relate to its geopolitical and geoeconomic future. “Projections that Indonesia will be among the world’s top economies by 2040 or so are reason to take Indonesia more seriously than it is taken now, but they won’t reserve it a seat at the table of strategic actors who dictate world affairs,” the book cautions before going on to note various lenses with which to assess the country’s future evolution5.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Future Datapoints to Watch, Along With Policy Change Contours And Key Variables

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the outcomes from the recently-concluded ASEAN Future Forum, including ASEAN Wonk’s conversations with country delegation participants in Hanoi at the forum;

• Mapping of regional developments, including a new China state visit and a concluded coast guard agreement;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as twin new defense pacts; mining race competition and nuclear assessment;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including energy pact; economic zone push; connectivity futures and more;

• And much more!

This Week’s WonkCount: 1,956 words (~9 minutes)

New China Visit; Coast Guard Pact Announcement & More

Control Consolidation Bid; Isolation Reversal Effort & Dispute Narrative

• “Such measures deepen the persistent trust deficit among claimants in the South China Sea and undermine the prospects for credible environmental stewardship,” cautions a new commentary on China’s nature reserve claims on Scarborough Shoal released by the Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute (link).

• “[S]hifting relations with foreign powers…are reducing Myanmar’s diplomatic isolation,” notes a newly-released report on Myanmar by the International Crisis Group that examines shifts in the consolidation of military rule, a fluid battleground landscape and emerging foreign policy developments (link).

• “There is reason for confidence…ten years ago, compulsory conciliation under UNCLOS resolved a maritime dispute between Timor-Leste and Australia that had seemed intractable,” Cambodia’s foreign minister wrote in Asia Times on his government’s position on initiating compulsory conciliation proceedings with Thailand under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (link).

What Did 2026 ASEAN Future Forum Reveal on Geoeconomics?

What’s Behind It

• The latest iteration of the ASEAN Future Forum attended by several top leaders spotlighted the evolving regional conversation on geoeconomic and geopolitical realities1. A key point that came up in ASEAN Wonk’s conversations with regional country delegation participants in Hanoi at the forum was the extent to which datapoints — including leader-level representation and proliferating events featuring political parties and localities — spoke to the platform’s value as part of the region’s series of dialogues in its third year2. This came alongside other unfolding global and Indo-Pacific developments over the past week including China-North Korea summitry and the EU disclosure of agreement with respect to the first phase of membership talks with Ukraine3.

Select Key Recent Southeast Asia, Indo-Pacific and Global Developments

• The deliberations also honed in on the state of ongoing regional agenda items of broader global interest. Multiple current and former policymakers suggested measures across sectors such as artificial intelligence and energy while directly or indirectly referencing the need to address what Vietnam’s communist party chief To Lam had recently characterized as a convergence of three foundational crises that included a “crisis of development models”4. There was also scrutiny on leadership dynamics in the room as proceedings unfolded, with a case in point being exchanges between the leaders of Cambodia and Thailand amid ongoing border tensions given that they both attended this year’s forum5.

Why It Matters

• The engagement also spotlighted policy datapoint areas to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Additional Details, Along With New Policy Datapoint Areas And Select Key Actors

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the lost Philippines UN Security Council bid amid Manila’s ASEAN chairmanship;

• Mapping of regional developments, including major dispute pivot as well as new declared summit wins;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new anti-scam center; big defense first and counting geoeconomic disruption;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including megaproject blow; media ban; anti-disinformation bid and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review of a new book mapping out futures for Asia’s geopolitical and geoeconomic outlook.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,147 words (~10 minutes)

Major Dispute Pivot; Summit Win Declarations & More

Countering Coercion; Satellite Futures & Partnership Prospects

• “There is growing awareness in the Philippines and in Taiwan of common security challenges, but differences in perception, capability, and political constraints continue to influence their responses,” notes a report by NGO We Protect our Seas (WPS) on countering maritime aggression which offers recommendations on future steps in this realm (link).

Graphic Outlining Chinese Vessel Activity Documented By Philippine Coast Guard

• “Deployment is accelerating…yet affordability remains a barrier for the communities that would benefit most, and the technology is moving faster than the policy frameworks needed to govern it,” notes a policy brief on Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite technology in the Indo-Pacific by the Lowy Institute think tank (link).

Status of Starlink Availability Across the Indo-Pacific

• “Notably, attitudes in Thailand towards Vietnam have also changed significantly,” observes an op-ed published in The Bangkok Post on the prospects for Thailand-Vietnam relations which were in the spotlight with the recent visit by communist party chief President To Lam to Thailand (link).

What Does Lost Philippines UN Security Council Bid Signal?

What’s Behind It

• The Philippines loss of its United Nations Security Council seat bid has sparked speculation around the factors behind it and what it means for Manila’s wider global engagement1. In the weeks leading up to the vote, officials began privately signaling a close state of play despite Manila’s past efforts which had included President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivering a special address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York just a few months ago in March2. And while Kyrgyzstan’s bid had its own merits and the Philippines is not unfamiliar with the challenges of securing support for some past bold bids rooted in international law — including the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling on the South China Sea marking its 10th anniversary this year — diplomats also noted the role of vote-winning strategies that played out across multiple ballots alongside the role of powers such as China, the United States and Russia in supporting the bids3.

Select Key Recent Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments in Southeast Asia

• The bid loss also came amid other continued gains on this score over the past week for the Philippines as part of its wider foreign and security policy. This included the sending off of a Philippine Coast Guard vessel for its inaugural participation in the U.S.-led Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise that Washington publicizes as the world’s premier maritime exercise — previously occurring at an observer level — and announced conclusion of negotiations on a delayed first-of-its-kind sectoral regionwide Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) under its ASEAN chairmanship year which officials say is set to be signed by leaders at the next round of summitry later this year4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Future Policy Datapoints to Watch, Alongside Major New Developments and Select Key Partners

Read more

WonkCount: 1,297 words (~6 minutes)

Review: Asia Crucible Future in Geopolitics and Geoeconomics

Context

“We must work together to reduce undue dependencies and ensure that progress is not held hostage to disruptions or to coercion,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said in framing his historic remarks to a joint session of Japan’s parliament earlier this month1. Marcos’ comments captured the difficult tradeoffs Indo-Pacific states are experiencing in managing the challenges and opportunities emerging from a shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, some of which have been playing out publicly in ongoing regional fora including the latest iteration of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue that took place this past week2.

Select Key Recent Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments in the Indo-Pacific

A new book Asian Crucible by scholar Nick Bisley attempts to map out future scenarios for Asia’s geopolitical and geoeconomic outlook3. In doing so, it adds a scholarly account to the recent series of books that have attempted to shed light on regional futures and their implications for subregions like Southeast Asia as well as wider conceptions such as the Indo-Pacific. These include ones by current and former policymakers that we have reviewed here on ASEAN Wonk such as Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Rethinking Ourselves and the former permanent secretary of Singapore’s foreign ministry Bilahari Kausikan’s The Myth of the Asian Century. “The greatest period of stability in modern Asia’s history has given way to a risky and dangerous future,” the book notes before sketching out future scenarios4.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Policy Datapoints to Watch, Along With Key Outlook Orientations And Future Scenario Labels

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of announcements and outcomes from the just-concluded Shangri-La Dialogue security summit;

• Mapping of regional developments, including North Korea speculation and new summit upgrade talks;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as big digital milestone; information control regime; and infrastructure disruption;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including quiet pilot program; energy security guidance; intel pact and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out the latest episode of the ASEAN Wonk Podcast featuring a council chief’s forecasting of Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asia geoeconomic futures beyond Middle East conflict fallout.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,027 words (~9 minutes)

North Korea Speculation; Summit Upgrade Talks & More

Conflict Assessment; Legal Warfare & Turning Point Intersection

• “The Asia-Pacific has seen major cross-border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, India and Pakistan, and Pakistan and Afghanistan just in the past year alone,” notes the latest iteration of a chapter in the annual regional security assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) released in conjunction with Shangri-La Dialogue (link).

  

• “Taiwan must be cautious not to give the CCP a pretext for war by making a legal misstep…a single error at a crucial moment could result in Taiwan being isolated internationally, argues a new report released by the Global Taiwan Institute that attempts to provide a framework for “legal warfare” (link).

• “India and Africa are each, in their own ways, at a turning point…Africa is the world’s fastest-growing demographic bloc. India has goodwill and is largely seen as a partner of choice rather than of necessity,” notes a publication by think tank Gateway House released amid a postponed India-Africa Forum Summit (link).

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 Kicks Off New Underwater GUIDE Pact

What’s Behind It

• A new GUIDE framework on critical underwater infrastructure (CUI) was among the developments that headlined this year’s iteration of the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore1. The deliberations took place amid evolving storylines on major power engagements. This included U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s attempt to reinforce U.S. prioritization of Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific following recent initiatives by Washington as well as official responses to the absence of China’s defense minister for the second year running (even though this did not prevent other Chinese participants at the SLD from raising Beijing’s familiar allegations around Japan “militarism” and intrusions into Beijing’s waters and airspace)2.

• The engagement also saw a series of security-related announcements on its sidelines. Much of the attention was on publicized updates such as one issued on the AUKUS trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States after the three convened in Singapore, despite other practitioners pointing to lingering concerns on this front3. There was also scrutiny on ministerial remarks around future defense-related deals involving Indo-Pacific states, in addition to ongoing preparations for security developments on the calendar for later this year after events this past week such as an Indian Ocean defense conference hosted in Australia4.

Select Key Recent Geopolitical-Related Developments Amid 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Additional Details Along With New Defense Datapoints And Select Key Countries

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INTRODUCTION

ASEAN Wonk: Welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, where we bring you expert insights and regional perspectives on Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific geopolitics and geoeconomics. I’m your host Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. If you haven’t already, do subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk platform at www.aseanwonk.com so you don’t miss our full posts.

Our guest today is Dr. Kaewkamol “Karen” Pitakdumrongkit, who is the executive director at the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) that plays a very important role in some of the regional geoeconomic conversations including in APEC. We start our conversation talking through some of the perceptions of current challenges in policymaking, including the Middle East conflict fallout. Be sure to stay tuned as we go through a range of other subjects, including China’s evolving APEC agenda for its chair year this year and what to expect in the future regional economic agenda in a context where Vietnam will be chairing APEC in 2027 as Singapore will be chairing ASEAN.

Note: The transcript that follows the above free clip preview has been lightly edited for clarity and organized into sections for ease of quick browsing. For all ASEAN Wonk Podcast episodes, full video and audio podcasts, along with edited and sectioned transcripts as well as block quotes, will be a premium product for our paying subscribers, but we will include a short free transcript preview and a clip for all readers to maintain accessibility. Paying subscribers can find the rest of the full transcript and the full video podcast right below the paywall. If you have not already, do consider subscribing, and, if you have already done so and like what you see and hear, do consider forwarding this to others as well who may be interested. Thank you for your support as always!

STATE OF CURRENT REGIONAL GEOECONOMIC DYNAMICS

ASEAN Wonk: So welcome to the podcast, Karen, and let’s start, if we could, on where we are now with respect to the regional geoeconomic policy conversation. You were recently at the senior officials meeting with respect to APEC. Your organization also does a number of surveys on an annual basis with respect to these geoeconomic perceptions. What is your sense in terms of these senior officials meetings and conversations with officials about where the regional dynamics and geoeconomic policy conversations are? It seems like a lot of the focus is around the Iran war and some of the geoeconomic fallout, and very interested in your perceptions about what you’re sensing from policymakers.

Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit: Thank you so much Prashanth for having me. Yes I am the executive director of PECC, but just want to make a quick note here that what I’m going to say is my own view: it doesn’t represent PECC’s view of positions. So yes, we just came back from the senior officials meeting in Shanghai. I and my colleagues were there and we had a lot of activities, like organizing some workshops or a general meeting which is our annual conference we do for ourselves and for APEC policymakers. The sentiments during the SOM-2 (senior officials meetings) and related meetings are concerning because we know we are in the midst of rising protectionism as well as energy shocks and also some energy issues – you know, the spillover from conflict in the Middle East. This actually seeped into the discussions during APEC. So we talked a lot about the implications of energy problems as well as geopolitics. But the atmosphere at APEC is very open because APEC is a nonbinding platform. So it’s actually open for discussion and sharing ideas, best practices and concerns. I think I feel that overall, the discussion was stimulating, and people there, APEC officials, are butting heads to try to figure out how to lessen the impact of external factors, external shocks like energy shocks on the region. I think we’re trying to find what would be the collective action that we can put forward to help the region navigate in this challenging time.

HOW CHINA IS SHAPING THE AGENDA

ASEAN Wonk: China is chairing APEC this year and PECC provides support for APEC and some of these big geoeconomic conversations. Obviously a lot of this is in the shadow of the superpower summitry between the United States and China, and there’s a lot of focus about how the leaders of the United States and China will be meeting multiple times potentially this year: we’ve just seen the recent summit meeting happen between the two countries. Being in the room at these senior officials’ meetings, how do you sense that these meetings are going within China’s APEC agenda, which is much broader than just the US-China relationship?

Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit: Yeah. That’s a great question, Prashanth. Yes. APEC, as you know, is the organization with twenty-one member economies: definitely it’s bigger than China and US. China is doing very well on APEC so far. The theme is building an Asia Pacific community to prosper together. And this year, China chose to focus on three priorities. One is openness, two is innovation, and three, cooperation.

Openness, the focus now is on how can we show our support for multilateral trading system; how we can work toward a rule-based economic system that make it more predictable, make it more viable for businesses to operate. There is also a lot of discussion on openness about how to strengthen supply chain resilience and connectivity. There are a lot of APEC initiatives that we are seeing headway on like connectivity projects in three pillars – physical, institutional and people-to-people. For example, paperless trade: how can we make sure that electronic certification that could facilitate trade better. That’s about openness.

So the second priority is called innovation. So for this one, China focuses on artificial intelligence (AI) applications and also how to promote the interoperability of data standards or other standards across economies. Innovation also talks about how to enhance digital infrastructure as well as workforce digital literacy and AI skills. So we are trying to make inroads as we have a lot of focus on the digital economy. And the last one which just got endorsed by our leaders is called the APEC AI initiative. So it’s about shoring up cooperation within APEC on AI.

And last but not least, the third priority is cooperation. So under cooperation, it covers variety of things. It covers sectoral cooperation like on SMEs, human resources, energy, food security, public health, etc. So this one is broad but it’s actually very useful because cooperation focuses on how can you ensure that growth and development in the APEC region is inclusive. So because we have some groups that are falling behind – disadvantaged groups, women, etcetera. So that cooperation will ensure that these groups are benefiting from the growth and development in APEC.

NEW GEOECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES AMID CHALLENGES

ASEAN Wonk: Some of these priorities you mentioned are important and carry on from chair to chair, like artificial intelligence which was prioritized as well when South Korea chaired last year, or aspirational developments like the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) countries have been working towards for a long time. There are also a number of opportunities in areas like trade pacts with RCEP and CPTPP or sectoral agreements, in spite of the challenges we’re seeing as well. As somebody who’s very active in these conversations, how are countries balancing the opportunity side of this relative to challenges?

Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit: Definitely. Yes, we talk about challenges…we also talk about opportunity as well: how can we ensure that opportunities are complementary and also how can we work toward more promotional benefits. So in terms of opportunity, yes, we have, for example, under openness, we look at openness about how to support the multilateral trading system fostering the rule-based international economic system. We talk about FTAAP as well…to try to add more value to the conversation that has been going on the trade front. You mentioned TPP and also CPTPP, right? There’s a lot of free trade agreements being signed and being implemented. For example, RCEP…the project that APEC is trying to do is how can we construct or develop FTAAP. I just want to refer back to our state of the region report in 2022, where we had a question asking officials about how do you envision this FTAAP: do you think this could be a standalone negotiation or could we use existing FTAs as building blocks to develop the FTAAP? The overwhelming majority said that we should use existing FTAs like CPTPP or RCEP and perhaps expand them – add more members and that could help us build up to the larger Asia FTA covering Asia Pacific economies. That’s one thing that APEC discussion and also APEC inputs have added value to regional economic development.

Also, on innovation, yes, you mentioned about some progress being made so far to China. The there was a plan on some discussion right now to talk about whether we should do something that actually has additional progress. As you know, there was an APEC AI initiative endorsed by the leaders last year. So we are discussing whether we can have some high-level statement like this coming up at the end of the year [at APEC summit engagements in] Shenzhen. Would that be possible? So it’s still in the process of deliberating and discussion.

But…I think the sentiment is that we need…some message from the high-level people, like leaders’ level, to actually propel the progress of AI so far. And for AI, I just want to maybe add a few things about PECC work that we have been doing to support on the AI/innovation front. We have a project on artificial intelligence, which has advanced discussion on many aspects of AI cooperation that includes SMEs, AI transformation that would include capacity building as well as AI safety and governance. So we hope that it would help feed into the APEC discussion and help them come up with ways to cooperate better on the AI front.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE COMING 2027 GEOECONOMIC AGENDA

ASEAN Wonk: We’re going to be leading into some of the summit engagements later this year that China will be hosting, and then in terms of upcoming geoeconomic dynamics, Vietnam will be chairing APEC next year as one of the world’s most active users of trade agreements with the chair position moving back to Southeast Asia after being in Northeast Asia with China. How do you see geoeconomic dynamics manifesting in terms of the proceedings that we’ll see later this year and then into 2027?

Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit: Yes, this is…

[Note: This is the end of a free preview podcast, with the full version in an earlier post published on May 28, 2026 available to our paying subscribers. This is not meant to serve as new content and is part of our free preview content within the dedicated website podcast section].

ASEAN Wonk: Welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, where we bring you expert insights and regional perspectives on Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific geopolitics and geoeconomics. I’m your host Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. If you haven’t already, do subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk platform at www.aseanwonk.com so you don’t miss our full posts.

Our guest today is Dr. Kaewkamol “Karen” Pitakdumrongkit, who is the executive director at the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) that plays a very important role in some of the regional geoeconomic conversations including in APEC. We start our conversation talking through some of the perceptions of current challenges in policymaking, including the Middle East conflict fallout. Be sure to stay tuned as we go through a range of other subjects, including China’s evolving APEC agenda for its chair year this year and what to expect in the future regional economic agenda in a context where Vietnam will be chairing APEC in 2027 as Singapore will be chairing ASEAN.

Note: The transcript that follows the above free clip preview has been lightly edited for clarity and organized into sections for ease of quick browsing. For all ASEAN Wonk Podcast episodes, full video and audio podcasts, along with edited and sectioned transcripts as well as block quotes, will be a premium product for our paying subscribers, but we will include a short free transcript preview and a clip for all readers to maintain accessibility. Paying subscribers can find the rest of the full transcript and the full video podcast right below the paywall. If you have not already, do consider subscribing, and, if you have already done so and like what you see and hear, do consider forwarding this to others as well who may be interested. Thank you for your support as always!

STATE OF CURRENT REGIONAL GEOECONOMIC DYNAMICS

ASEAN Wonk: So welcome to the podcast, Karen, and let’s start, if we could, on where we are now with respect to the regional geoeconomic policy conversation. You were recently at the senior officials meeting with respect to APEC. Your organization also does a number of surveys on an annual basis with respect to these geoeconomic perceptions. What is your sense in terms of these senior officials meetings and conversations with officials about where the regional dynamics and geoeconomic policy conversations are? It seems like a lot of the focus is around the Iran war and some of the geoeconomic fallout, and very interested in your perceptions about what you’re sensing from policymakers.

Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit: Thank you so much Prashanth for having me. Yes I am the executive director of PECC, but just want to make a quick note here that what I’m going to say is my own view: it doesn’t represent PECC’s view of positions. So yes, we just came back from the senior officials meeting in Shanghai. I and my colleagues were there and we had a lot of activities, like organizing some workshops or a general meeting which is our annual conference we do for ourselves and for APEC policymakers. The sentiments during the SOM-2 (senior officials meetings) and related meetings are concerning because we know we are in the midst of rising protectionism as well as energy shocks and also some energy issues – you know, the spillover from conflict in the Middle East. This actually seeped into the discussions during APEC. So we talked a lot about the implications of energy problems as well as geopolitics. But the atmosphere at APEC is very open because APEC is a nonbinding platform. So it’s actually open for discussion and sharing ideas, best practices and concerns. I think I feel that overall, the discussion was stimulating, and people there, APEC officials, are butting heads to try to figure out how to lessen the impact of external factors, external shocks like energy shocks on the region. I think we’re trying to find what would be the collective action that we can put forward to help the region navigate in this challenging time.

HOW CHINA IS SHAPING THE AGENDA

ASEAN Wonk: China is chairing APEC this year and PECC provides support for APEC and some of these big geoeconomic conversations. Obviously a lot of this is in the shadow of the superpower summitry between the United States and China, and there’s a lot of focus about how the leaders of the United States and China will be meeting multiple times potentially this year: we’ve just seen the recent summit meeting happen between the two countries. Being in the room at these senior officials’ meetings, how do you sense that these meetings are going within China’s APEC agenda, which is much broader than just the US-China relationship?

Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit: Yeah. That’s a great question, Prashanth. Yes. APEC, as you know, is the organization with twenty-one member economies: definitely it’s bigger than China and US. China is doing very well on APEC so far. The theme is building an Asia Pacific community to prosper together. And this year, China chose to focus on three priorities. One is openness, two is innovation, and three, cooperation.

Openness, the focus now is on how can we show our support for multilateral trading system; how we can work toward a rule-based economic system that make it more predictable, make it more viable for businesses to operate. There is also a lot of discussion on openness about how to strengthen supply chain resilience and connectivity. There are a lot of APEC initiatives that we are seeing headway on like connectivity projects in three pillars – physical, institutional and people-to-people. For example, paperless trade: how can we make sure that electronic certification that could facilitate trade better. That’s about openness.

So the second priority is called innovation. So for this one, China focuses on artificial intelligence (AI) applications and also how to promote the interoperability of data standards or other standards across economies. Innovation also talks about how to enhance digital infrastructure as well as workforce digital literacy and AI skills. So we are trying to make inroads as we have a lot of focus on the digital economy. And the last one which just got endorsed by our leaders is called the APEC AI initiative. So it’s about shoring up cooperation within APEC on AI.

And last but not least, the third priority is cooperation. So under cooperation, it covers variety of things. It covers sectoral cooperation like on SMEs, human resources, energy, food security, public health, etc. So this one is broad but it’s actually very useful because cooperation focuses on how can you ensure that growth and development in the APEC region is inclusive. So because we have some groups that are falling behind – disadvantaged groups, women, etcetera. So that cooperation will ensure that these groups are benefiting from the growth and development in APEC.

NEW GEOECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES AMID CHALLENGES

ASEAN Wonk: Some of these priorities you mentioned are important and carry on from chair to chair, like artificial intelligence which was prioritized as well when South Korea chaired last year, or aspirational developments like the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) countries have been working towards for a long time. There are also a number of opportunities in areas like trade pacts with RCEP and CPTPP or sectoral agreements, in spite of the challenges we’re seeing as well. As somebody who’s very active in these conversations, how are countries balancing the opportunity side of this relative to challenges?

Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit: Definitely. Yes, we talk about challenges…we also talk about opportunity as well: how can we ensure that opportunities are complementary and also how can we work toward more promotional benefits. So in terms of opportunity, yes, we have, for example, under openness, we look at openness about how to support the multilateral trading system fostering the rule-based international economic system. We talk about FTAAP as well…to try to add more value to the conversation that has been going on the trade front. You mentioned TPP and also CPTPP, right? There’s a lot of free trade agreements being signed and being implemented. For example, RCEP…the project that APEC is trying to do is how can we construct or develop FTAAP. I just want to refer back to our state of the region report in 2022, where we had a question asking officials about how do you envision this FTAAP: do you think this could be a standalone negotiation or could we use existing FTAs as building blocks to develop the FTAAP? The overwhelming majority said that we should use existing FTAs like CPTPP or RCEP and perhaps expand them – add more members and that could help us build up to the larger Asia FTA covering Asia Pacific economies. That’s one thing that APEC discussion and also APEC inputs have added value to regional economic development.

Also, on innovation, yes, you mentioned about some progress being made so far to China. The there was a plan on some discussion right now to talk about whether we should do something that actually has additional progress. As you know, there was an APEC AI initiative endorsed by the leaders last year. So we are discussing whether we can have some high-level statement like this coming up at the end of the year [at APEC summit engagements in] Shenzhen. Would that be possible? So it’s still in the process of deliberating and discussion.

But…I think the sentiment is that we need…some message from the high-level people, like leaders’ level, to actually propel the progress of AI so far. And for AI, I just want to maybe add a few things about PECC work that we have been doing to support on the AI/innovation front. We have a project on artificial intelligence, which has advanced discussion on many aspects of AI cooperation that includes SMEs, AI transformation that would include capacity building as well as AI safety and governance. So we hope that it would help feed into the APEC discussion and help them come up with ways to cooperate better on the AI front.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE COMING 2027 GEOECONOMIC AGENDA

ASEAN Wonk: We’re going to be leading into some of the summit engagements later this year that China will be hosting, and then in terms of upcoming geoeconomic dynamics, Vietnam will be chairing APEC next year as one of the world’s most active users of trade agreements with the chair position moving back to Southeast Asia after being in Northeast Asia with China. How do you see geoeconomic dynamics manifesting in terms of the proceedings that we’ll see later this year and then into 2027?

Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit: Yes, this is…

CONTINUED TRANSCRIPT AND FULL VIDEO PODCAST EPISODE FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS

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For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a launch of the inaugural iteration of a new artificial intelligence ministerial;

• Mapping of regional developments, such as a coming international nuclear review and new maritime consultations;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends including military overhaul call; new strategy update; and delayed corridor boost;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators such as trade disruption fear; shadowy energy aid; digital scrutiny and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review of a new book by a former division chief forecasting geoeconomic futures triggered by a “doom loop” and its global and Indo-Pacific implications.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,039 words (~9 minutes)

New Maritime Consultation; International Nuclear Review & More

Warring Europe Futures; Counterinsurgency Challenges & Scam Center Spotlight

• “Before 2030, the EU and its member states should deepen strategic ties with key middle powers, using trade, investment, standard-setting, and security cooperation as complementary instruments,” notes a policy brief by Bertelsmann Stiftung describing geopolitical scenarios for Europe in 2035 (link).

Graphic Depicting Extreme Europe Scenario Implications

• “Until a new counterinsurgency strategy is defined, the stalemate and the violence will continue,” notes a commentary by Stratsea on the long-running Southern Thailand insurgency. The piece analyzes trends in political and military strategy that has maintained the conflict over decades (link).

• “What has historically remained unexamined is how these activities fit within

  a broader pattern of convergent transnational organized crime with links to the Chinese Communist Party,” warns a newly-released U.S. congressional committee report on transnational crime which includes a focus on scam centers in Southeast Asia (link).

A New Artificial Intelligence US-ASEAN Ministerial Boost?

What’s Behind It

• A new artificial intelligence ministerial kicked off between the United States and ASEAN countries amid other Indo-Pacific engagements1. India is scheduled to host a foreign ministers’ meeting of the Quad this coming week after bilateral engagements with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio2. Details also continued to surface on the outlines of an Iran deal alongside separate and wider regional diplomatic activities, including the visit of Pakistan’s premier to China and further rounds of meetings under the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum which expressed concern around the impasse on some pressing global geoeconomic agenda items3.

Select Key Recent Indo-Pacific and Global Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Developments

• The new ministerial signaled the growing importance of artificial intelligence as a domain in engagements. This was reinforced by other developments by other major powers over the course of the past few weeks both in Southeast Asia as well as in the wider Indo-Pacific region. One notable case in point was the scheduled inauguration ceremony for a new China-ASEAN artificial intelligence innovation center — a key agenda item which Beijing has been playing up in its engagements at the ASEAN level in Southeast Asia which also featured the attendance of the ASEAN secretary general4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Policy Priorities To Watch, Along With Select Major Areas And Key Sector Dimensions

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WonkCount: 1,427 words (~5 minutes)

Review: Doom Loop in Indo-Pacific and Global Geoeconomics?

Context

“Now if this continues into 2027…then we have to expect a much worse outcome,” the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva warned earlier this month regarding the uncertain global geoeconomic landscape1. Her outlook — which included an admission that the IMF’s “reference scenario” released just a few weeks ago “is further and further behind in the rearview mirror” compared to more adverse futures — was illustrative of the deep challenges policymakers face in navigating and forecasting evolving geoeconomic dynamics, including in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific2.

Select Key Recent Global and Indo-Pacific Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments

A new book The Doom Loop by former IMF division chief Eswar Prasad forecasts the future of a destructive “doom loop,” spiraling disorder and its wider implications for Indo-Pacific and global geoeconomics3. The book is the latest in a series of works that address the uncertain geoeconomic outlook and its regional and global implications, including ones we have reviewed here on ASEAN Wonk recently such as How to Win a Trade War by Chad Bown and Soumaya Keynes4. “It is not foreordained that negative currents will dominate, but breaking out of the doom loop will take herculean effort,” the book argues before delving into recommendations for how countries can do so in the coming years amid shifting global futures5.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Future Policy Pathways To Watch Along With Key Priority Areas And Major Pillars

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