For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of twin engagements spotlighting regional links with Russia and Central Asia states;

• Mapping of regional developments, including foreign interference denial and coming military drills in focus;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new artificial intelligence vision; defense pact hype; and maritime link futures;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including data center freeze; EV expansion focus; climate deal and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a new edited volume with an outlook on foreign policy futures.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,114 words (~10 minutes)

Foreign Interference Denial; Coming Military Drills & More

Flashpoint Perspective; Peace Process Spotlight & Energy Futures

• “A durable settlement…will come from concrete steps that reduce risk, protect communities and create the conditions in which both countries can address difficult boundary questions,” according to an op-ed written by Thailand foreign minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow on Thailand’s approach to UNCLOS conciliation proceedings with Cambodia following a revived border dispute between the two neighboring Southeast Asian countries (link).

• “Manila and the Bangsamoro government will need to work in tandem and be realistic about proposed reforms,” argues a new report published by the International Crisis Group on the state of peace and conflict in the southern Philippines ahead of repeatedly postponed parliamentary polls in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or BARMM (link).

• “The primary barrier to battery energy storage systems deployment in Indonesia lies in a limited pipeline of bankable projects, rather than financing constraints,” per a new report released by the International Energy Agency on the subject and the implications for the country’s energy future (link).

Twin SCO and EEF Meets Spotlight Russia, Central Asia Links

What’s Behind It

• Twin engagements spotlighted the state of evolving regional links with Russia and Central Asia earlier this week1. The engagements came alongside wider global geopolitical developments with regional implications. Apart from Indo-Pacific regional developments such as the outcomes of the recently concluded Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders meetings, this included Xi Jinping’s first visit to Egypt in over a decade after attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) engagements hosted in Kyrgyzstan featuring participation from some Southeast Asian states as well as speculation on the state of talks surrounding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and its future trajectory2.

Select Key Global Geopolitical-Related Developments

• The events also came amid other notable diplomatic and defense developments closer to home in Southeast Asia. Beyond the Russia visit made by Vietnam communist party chief and president To Lam, the Kremlin — no stranger to disinformation in and beyond the region — separately issued a strongly worded statement this past week to beat back allegations on remarks made by Russian President Vladimir Putin3. As Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto paid a visit to Russia triggering another wave of attention around his government’s evolving foreign policy approach, Jakarta was also in the midst of hosting the latest iteration of multinationalized Super Garuda Shield exercises with the United States and an expanding network of partner countries4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

New Policy Datapoints, Along With Participation Levels And Details And Key Countries

Read more

WonkCount: 1,257 words (~6 minutes)

Review: Beyond War and Scams in Cambodia Foreign Policy

Context

“Currently, there are no online scam compounds,” the chief of Cambodia’s counter-scam unit said this past week in a comment that generated no shortage of international headlines and controversy1. While even the country’s own state-owned media outlets have subsequently clarified that the selective focus on the remark obscures several important caveats made — including on the types of scam centers being discussed which officials and diplomats privately say has itself been changing in recent months — it was nonetheless another instance of the wider global and regional stakes at play in Cambodia’s evolving external outlook, with other recent cases in point being recent efforts to stabilize strained U.S.-Cambodia defense ties as well as the approach to managing border conflict tensions with Thailand2.

Select Key Recent Security-Related Developments in Southeast Asia

A new book Cambodia’s Foreign Relations in Regional and Global Contexts edited by Deth Sok Udom examines a key country’s evolving foreign policy futures in a wider global and regional perspective beyond periodic headlines around China-US shifts, scam networks and border conflicts3. In doing so, as Cambodia senior minister Sok Siphana notes in an introductory endorsement of the book, it adds a timely set of perspectives at a time when Cambodia has confronted what he called “the darkest moment” of its foreign policy of the past decade following cross-border clashes with neighboring Thailand, alongside “both fear and hope” in relations with the United States and regional tensions and open conflicts that “continue to simmer” in the Middle East, Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific4. “The road ahead is very rocky and full of risks and danger,” one of the introductory chapters of the book notes ahead of other contributions that delve more specifically into the evolving global, regional and domestic dynamics at play5.

Analysis

The book also highlights key policy datapoints and implications (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Future Policy Datapoints to Watch, Along With Select Key Aspects And Major Areas

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a new Malacca Straits meeting spotlighting ongoing maritime cooperation;

• Mapping of regional developments, including new Act East policy datapoint and latest South China Sea activity;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as China geoeconomic first; trilateral launch; and defense exhibition plan shift;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including debt watch; nuclear approval; big aviation deal focus and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this past week of a book forecasting futures on a coming alliance geopolitics test.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,147 words (~10 minutes)

New Act East Policy Datapoint; South China Sea Activity & More

Growth Ambitions Forecast; Regional Cooperation & Coming Rights Report

• “We expect more meaningful recovery from the fourth quarter onwards,” argues a new forecast published by S&P Global on the outlook for Asia’s key airlines given challenges such as high jet fuel costs and currency depreciation along with longer-term opportunities given the region’s continued role as the world’s fastest-expanding aviation market (link).

Aircraft Orders Outstanding By Aggregate Regions of the World and Low Cast Carrier Breakdown

• “Indonesia should concentrate on a few areas where working together could make a real difference, rather than produce another long list of ASEAN ambitions,” according to a new commentary published by The Straits Times on the role of ASEAN in Indonesia’s foreign policy that emphasizes the role of cooperation in areas such as energy security and maritime issues (link).

• “Those seeking protection in neighboring states may face risks of refoulment if they are unable to renew their travel documents…millions who fled and/or legally work abroad are at risk of becoming undocumented,” according to the advance unedited version of an annual United Nations report on the human rights situation in Myanmar (link).

  

New Malacca Straits Meeting Spotlights Maritime Cooperation

What’s Behind It

• Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore convened the latest iteration of a cooperation forum on the strategically significant Straits of Malacca and Singapore1. The convening came alongside a series of other wider Indo-Pacific geopolitical developments. This included the lead up to the latest iteration of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders meeting in Palau — which officially includes five of the Southeast Asia’s 11 countries as dialogue partners amid wider evolving Indo-Pacific conceptions —as well as the deployment of crisis response teams by some Southeast Asian states to Nepal2.

Select Key Recent Maritime-Related Developments in Southeast Asia

• The spotlight on maritime collaboration also occurred alongside a series of regional activities. Thailand publicly disclosed a U.S. aircraft carrier would make an upcoming brief stop before returning to the United States after its Middle East deployment, just as Washington was also separately concluding a series of drills this week in other Southeast Asian states including Brunei and East Timor3. Meanwhile, Malaysia revealed as part of a series of statements ahead of the country’s independence day anniversary that two Myanmar naval warships would be among the mechanisms used in a return process for Rohingya refugees playing out as intraregional tensions unfold within ASEAN over Myanmar4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Future Datapoints to Watch, Along With Major Action Areas And Key Domains

Read more

WonkCount: 1,527 words (~7 minutes)

Review: Coming Alliance Test in Taiwan Strait Futures?

Context

“When we say the situation is becoming increasingly severe, we mean that the number of their government vessels in the waters surrounding Taiwan has increased, and there was a marked increase,” a senior Taiwan coast guard official was quoted as saying recently on China’s deployment of a record number of ships near Taiwan1. The statement came amid a series of related developments this past week with implications for Southeast Asian states, including ongoing speculation surrounding the next round of U.S.-China summitry and the upcoming Pacific Islands Forum meeting with Taiwan’s participation2.

Select Key Recent Geopolitical Developments Related to Taiwan and Cross-Strait Relations

A new book U.S. Allies and the Taiwan Strait by scholar Adam P. Liff seeks to transcend the perceived U.S.-centric discourse on a future Taiwan scenario by examining the complex dynamics of wider, evolving global positions at play3. In doing so, it adds to a series of recent books on the intersection of global and Indo-Pacific geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics and evolving cross-Strait relations, including ones we have reviewed here on ASEAN Wonk. The work delves deep into the nuances of an issue where positions of even ‘like-minded’ countries can subtly diverge — whether it be the quiet conduct of naval transits out of the public spotlight or the handling of cross-Strait relations in Indo-Pacific outlooks4. “The stakes for the people of democratic Taiwan, regional peace and stability, China’s foreign relations, the international order, and the global economy could hardly be greater,” the book argues as it specifies some of the future implications of its findings5.

Analysis

The book also highlights key policy datapoints and implications (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Policy Significance And Implications, Along With Select Major Tendencies And Key Aspects

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of Taiwan drills hype echo amid the holding of a new China Indonesia “2+2” meeting;

• Mapping of regional developments, including new strategic partnership declaration and joint commission meeting outcomes;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as China nuclear agreement; defense pact entry and telecom blockage denial;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new trade pact deadline; scam bust; scandal fears and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review published earlier in the week of a new book by a former diplomat on great power diplomacy and US-China competition futures.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,397 words (~11 minutes)

New Strategic Partnership Declaration; Joint Commission Meeting & More

Divergent Realities; Regionalism Challenges & Tracking Linkages

• “Economic performance has become increasingly uneven across the region,” notes a newly-released regional outlook released by J.P. Morgan on economic performance in Southeast Asia in the context of several trends including investments in artificial intelligence and drag from the energy shock brought about by escalating conflict in the Middle East (link).

USD vs. Selected Southeast Asia and South Asia Currencies, Indexed Jan 1, 2026 = 100

• “As ASEAN turns 59 this month, the polite question in the ballroom is what the bloc will achieve in its seventh decade…the impolite, and far more urgent, question is who, if anyone, will lead it there,” argues a commentary published by The Jakarta Post assessing ASEAN’s challenges and Indonesia’s leadership within the grouping (link).

• “The United States is the Philippines’ top export market and 3rd largest overall trading partner…[and] 2nd largest investor,” according to a new publication released by the East-West Center on U.S.-Philippine alliance links across security, economic and people-to-people dimensions (link).

Select Sectoral Breakdown of US Assistance to the Philippines Since 2015

Taiwan Drills Hype Echo Amid New China Indonesia 2+2 Meet

What’s Behind It

• China and Indonesia held the second iteration of their new “2+2” ministerial mechanism this past week amid continued speculation following the earlier disclosure of holding of military drills east of Taiwan1. The meetings between the two countries came amid a focus on other ongoing security developments involving major powers and their presence in Southeast Asia as well as the wider Indo-Pacific region. This included defense officials from some Southeast Asian countries having to privately and publicly address concerns about how the movement of a U.S. carrier battle group from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East may affect defense engagements and calculations2.

Select Key Recent US-China-Related Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments in Southeast Asia and the Wider Indo-Pacific Region

• The development also highlighted China’s ongoing activities in the region with broader regional and global significance. Unsurprisingly, China publicly responded to reports of the United States specifying expectations to partners on artificial intelligence with respect to membership in duplicative initiatives by seeking to frame this as Washington having a “zero-sum mentality,” even as Southeast Asian officials also note that Beijing has been stepping up its own efforts in recent months to compete with Washington in this critical sector3. In another notable regional datapoint on Taiwan, Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s recent comments on China’s right to use force against Taiwan — despite some officials noting its specific wording in context — nonetheless produced rival responses from Beijing and Taipei respectively that dominated the headlines4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

New Policy Datapoints, Along With Key Cooperation Areas And Partnership Pillars

Read more

WonkCount: 1,278 words (~6 minutes)

Review: Great Power Diplomacy and US China Competition

Context

“The Philippines has no desire to be a belligerent nation,” President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said this past week when asked how Manila may react in a future U.S.-China fight in a Taiwan scenario1. His statement was just the most recent example of how Southeast Asia’s leaders are managing engagements on geopolitical questions amid the manifestations of U.S.-China competition that are privately and publicly playing out across Southeast Asia in key domains2.

Geopolitical Developments Related to US-China Competition in and Beyond Southeast Asia

A new book Great Power Diplomacy by former diplomat A. Wess Mitchell sets out how great power diplomacy can be leveraged by states to navigate intensifying competition in and beyond the Indo-Pacific3. In doing so, it adds to a series of recent books by former officials and policymakers on ways to navigate the current geopolitical environment, including ones we have reviewed here on ASEAN Wonk. “Meeting this challenge will be the organizing task…,” the book notes regarding geopolitical competition in the 21st century as it outlines some of the strategies for doing so that states can adopt in the coming years4.

Analysis

The book also highlights principles that can help states navigate shifting great power competition futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Notable Great Power Principles, Along with Major Actors and Desired Policy Tendencies

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of new allegations of a “great transshipment scam” implicating most of Southeast Asia;

• Mapping of regional developments, including Taiwan exercise controversy and new partnership progress declaration;

• Charting geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as anti-submarine datapoint; coming nuclear sites and new minerals mechanism;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including watchdog launch; military law specifics; green bill talk and more;

• And much more!

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,337 words (~11 minutes)

Taiwan Exercise Controversy; New Partnership Progress & More

New Defense White Paper; Corridor Futures & Climate Outlook

• “[C]ountries around the world are quickly preparing for new ways of warfare such as mass employment of unmanned assets, as well as getting ready for prolonged conflicts, bringing accelerated changes to the security environment in a wide range of domains,” according to the introduction to Japan’s defense white paper written by defense minister Shinjiro Koizumi which details Tokyo’s security links with various regions including Southeast Asia (link)

Select Global Defense-Related Projects Featured in Japan’s Defense White Paper

• “Taken together, this publication argues that the long-term success of the Southern Corridor should not be assessed solely through investment figures, trade volumes or infrastructure delivered….equally important is whether economic integration contributes to human flourishing,” argues a report released by ISIS Malaysia on the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (link).

Graphic Depicting Select Timeline of Proposed Transit Projects Within the JS-SEZ

• “The world is bracing for a potentially strong El Niño event in 2026…in Southeast Asia, this is expected to bring intensifying heat and dry spells, affecting agricultural output, water supply, and energy systems,” according to a new commentary published by the Asian Development Bank that synthesizes ongoing research in this space (link).

Great Transshipment Scam Claim Hits US Southeast Asia Ties

What’s Behind It

• The White House publicized new allegations on a global “great transshipment scam” affecting the United States with mention of key allies and partners along with most of the countries in Southeast Asia, inserting yet another datapoint into what has become a growing issue of wider regional and global geoeconomic concern1. Responses to the development played out amid other recent major power regional activities. Apart from the spotlight on Russia President Vladimir Putin’s first-ever visit of its kind to the disputed Kuril Islands which drew rebuke from Japan and Taiwan’s holding of its annual war games, Indonesia’s navy publicized more details on an exercise it had conducted with China east of Taiwan which had sparked controversy2.

Select Recent Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific

• The allegations came amid other geoeconomic developments in the region as well as the wider Indo-Pacific. Thailand’s government publicly rejected suggestions of connections being made between ongoing U.S. trade talks and future military exercises just as China heightened its publicizing the kicking off of air force drills with the U.S. treaty ally3. Separately, Beijing also accelerated preparations with regional states ahead of its hosting this week of the next round of senior officials’ meetings as chair this year of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, which it has used as a platform to accelerate global collaboration in strategic areas such as artificial intelligence4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted policy datapoints and details with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Additional Details, Along with Policy Characteristics And Strategic Designation

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical significance of dueling ASEAN Myanmar calls after a rare meet with former leader Aung San Suu Kyi and summit diplomacy;

• Mapping of regional developments, such as Pacific voyage and a new minilateral defense council meeting;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new debt plan claim; data leak fallout and coming exercise restart;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including quiet U.S.-China shifts; new tech plan; green economy win and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review this past week on where the Philippines is headed beyond geopolitics and implications for issues ranging from critical minerals to South China Sea dynamics.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,298 words (~10 minutes)

Pacific Voyage; New Minilateral Defense Council Meeting & More

China Links; Scam Disruption Claims & Digital Trade Spotlight

• “ASEAN-China relations cannot be taken for granted,” argues an article as part of a collection of perspectives published jointly by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta and China Foreign Affairs University with support from the China Mission to ASEAN which examines ties across issues ranging from trade to Mekong collaboration (link).

• “In our investigations we routinely observe actors moving between scam types, or combining multiple scam techniques within a single operation,” according to an account published by OpenAI on disruptions surrounding a Cambodia-based scam operation using ChatGPT to support its operations (link).

• “[T]he policy question for ASEAN is how DEFA can enhance regulatory coherence and provide added value in supporting trade…whilst preserving legitimate regulatory space,” notes a new policy brief published by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) on balancing digital trade and regulatory objectives within the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) as it applies to digital products using cryptography (link).

Dueling ASEAN Myanmar Calls After Aung San Suu Kyi Meeting

What’s Behind It

• Dueling ASEAN Myanmar calls were issued after a rare meeting with former leader Aung San Suu Kyi and ongoing summit diplomacy amid other flashpoint-related developments within and beyond Southeast Asia1. These included Australia and Philippine defense ministers issuing a statement expressing rising concerns on deteriorating South China Sea dynamics that have sparked wider international concern as well as scrutiny in some circles on the lack of joint condemnation of China’s July missile test at the Pacific Islands Forum meeting convened in Fiji2.

Select Key Recent Regional Flashpoint-Related Developments in and Around Southeast Asia

• The developments also highlighted ongoing regional dynamics with global implications. The dueling calls occurred just as ASEAN commemorated the latest iteration of its annual anniversary on August 8, with other powers including the United States also strongly weighing in on regional issues3. A new round of Cambodia-Thailand barb-trading also played out over external assistance as diplomatic talks and maritime inspections unfolded, following controversy that had previously grown out of a publicized United Nations envoy report4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Flashpoint Datapoints to Watch, Along With Select Policy Aspects And Issue Pillars

Read more

WonkCount: 1,487 words (~7 minutes)

Review: Beyond Geopolitics, Where Next for the Philippines?

Context

“Together, we found ways to alleviate the dire consequences of the war in the Middle East,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. reflected this past week on regional initiatives being undertaken during the country’s ASEAN chairmanship in the most recent iteration of his annual State of the Nation Address (SONA)1. While some of these initiatives are still in the works, Marcos’ references to global headwinds were nonetheless notable as part of ongoing attempts to connect these dynamics with domestic priorities still being advanced under his administration, with other cases in point being the South China Sea and the direction of the U.S.-Philippine alliance.

Select Key Recent Foreign and Security Policy Developments Related to the Philippines

A new book Beyond Geopolitics edited by Cleo Anne A. Calimbahin and Bjorn Dressel provides a comprehensive lens with which to view where the Philippines is and where it is headed under and beyond President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, with implications for the country’s foreign and security policy outlook2. In doing so, it provides one of the few early deep-dive assessments on dynamics surrounding the the country’s current and evolving future outlook under Marcos, beyond other book-length accounts we have reviewed here on ASEAN Wonk that addressed aspects such as the geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges amid the attempted China pivot away from the U.S.-Philippine alliance under Marcos’ predecessor Rodrigo Duterte as well as the transition between the two administrations. “These dynamics will play a significant role in shaping the competition among political families for the 2028 presidential race,” the book forecasts before going on to examine these dynamics with implications that extend out to major Indo-Pacific and global capitals3.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Future Datapoints to Watch, Along With Key Policy Aspects And Major Pillars

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a series of new warnings and actions issued with respect to giant proliferating scam centers;

• Mapping of regional developments, including a new aircraft carrier visit and headline refugee return claim in the spotlight;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as big EV race move; quiet AI body launch; and data center screening call;.

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including trade pact inroads; coalition investment; rail boost; and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a book on how a future U.S.-China superpower conflict may unfold.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,318 words (~10 minutes)

New Aircraft Carrier Visit; Refugee Return Claim & More

Axis Futures; Flashpoint Dynamics & Connectivity Challenges

• “[C]hinese…sources suggest persistent unease about the partnership’s second-order effects, especially the risks of instability on the Korean Peninsula, diminished Chinese leverage over Pyongyang, tighter U.S.-ROK-Japan coordination, and broader reputational costs for China,” notes an analysis published by RAND Corporation on China’s position on emerging Russia-North Korea military cooperation compared with Russian views (link).

Table Snapshot on China vs. Russia Literature Insights on China-Russia-North Korea Trilateral Relationship

• “[T]he conditions for friction at Scarborough and across the West Philippine Sea are likely to persist,” according to an analysis of a quarterly situational report on the South China Sea featured in the inaugural issue of the WPS Quarterly published by We Protect the Seas (link).

Visual Depictions of Select Monitored Floating Structures per Philippine Coast Guard

• “The main sticking points are regulatory mismatch, holes in the financing architecture, and supply-chain bottlenecks…unless all three are resolved, the ASEAN Power Grid will remain investable in theory but not in practice,” according to an analysis published by Asialink that examines the state of the ASEAN Power Grid and opportunities for Australia to unlock opportunities (link).

New Sanctions in World Southeast Asia Scam Centers Warning

What’s Behind It

• A series of warnings were issued on scam centers in Southeast Asia over the past week in conjunction with the World Day Against Trafficking in Persons on July 30 amid other globally-relevant flashpoint-related developments1. They included the aftermath around the publicized summoning of Malaysia’s U.S. ambassador on Israel policy — which diplomats privately say was less charged than the headlines suggested — and a new round of China-Philippine barb-trading in the South China Sea following the recent round of ASEAN ministerial meetings with Beijing play up patrols and new regulations governing a self-declared “nature reserve”2. Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto’s remark about South Korea President Lee Jae Myung asking him to visit North Korea “to open some kind of dialogue” also triggered headlines beyond the concerns around the state of Indonesia’s domestic economy3.

Select Key Recent Flashpoint-Related Developments with Regional and Global Relevance

• The developments also occurred alongside intersecting ongoing dynamics with respect to regional challenges with international implications. These included new U.S. and China inroads on their own initiatives as they related to countering transnational crime amid newly announced European Union scam center sanctions as well as rivaling statements issued by Cambodia and Thailand during the visit of a UN representative just after both governments had rolled out parallel strategic communications campaigns to mark the one-year anniversary of the outbreak of tensions between them4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

New Policy Datapoints, Along With Key Policy Areas And Major Actors

Read more

WonkCount: 1,637 words (~7 minutes)

Review: How Would the US Fight China in a Taiwan Scenario?

Context

“[T]he United States Coast Guard and the Taiwan Coast Guard are busy coordinating on shared maritime objectives,” read a social media post released by the American Institute in Taiwan earlier this week that sparked another round of media headlines including in China state-run news outlets1. The episode — alongside attention on other areas this past week including military assistance, legislative dynamics and exchanges — came amid ongoing speculation over shifting U.S.-China regional dynamics ahead of the next round of summitry later this year that have also swirled around the recent round of ASEAN meetings, in addition to evolving conversations around flashpoint futures2.

Select Key Recent U.S.-China Related Developments

A new book How The United States Would Fight China by defense analyst Franz-Stefan Gady examines how a superpower conflict could unfold in a future Taiwan scenario and warfighting challenges that may lie ahead3. In doing so, it adds to a series of recent books shedding light on U.S.-China conflict scenarios and military strategies as they relate to Taiwan, including ones by former policymakers we have reviewed here on ASEAN Wonk such as Defending Our Island Home by Taiwan’s former chief of general staff Admiral Lee Hsi-min and The Boiling Moat edited by former U.S. deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger4. While acknowledging some recent inroads made, the book spotlights the challenging tradeoffs that the U.S. military would still likely face in future versions of superpower conflict given shifting domestic, regional and global realities. “The U.S. armed forces are currently caught in an impossible dilemma,” the book argues before setting out some of the more specific military dynamics that could unfold5.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential conflict futures as they relate to both China and the United States (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Core Characteristics of Likely US vs. China Military Approaches to Future Taiwan Scenario

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of new partnerships at play in the recently concluded round of ASEAN meetings;

• Mapping of regional developments, such as a new China dialogue mechanism and a key security agreement signing;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as cable launch; strategic trade move and expanding underground economy;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including missile deal; geoeconomic reversal; mobility spotlight and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out the latest ASEAN Wonk Podcast episode earlier this week with a former government official on what lies ahead on the South China Sea, the US-Philippines alliance and much more.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,348 words (~11 minutes)

New China Dialogue; Security Agreement Signing & More

Critical Minerals Checkpoint; Mekong Choice Spotlight & Proliferation Cascade Worries

• “Recent investments, particularly in rare earths, have supported some diversification of ownership,” according to the latest iteration of the International Energy Agency’s global critical minerals outlook which notes regional developments such as production increases in Malaysia and Indonesia’s evolving global significance in areas such as nickel (link).

Share of Refined Material Production by Country Over the Past Year vs. Top Producer Share in 2023

• “This ambitious development has significant strategic geopolitical, economic, hydrological, environmental and social ramifications,” argues a new commentary published by The Bangkok Post on the potential cross-border and regional challenges posed by a new dam project recently agreed on between Laos and Myanmar (link).

• “To maintain a stable nuclear balance and a credible American nuclear umbrella, Indo-Pacific allies like Australia will have to step up in new and innovative ways,” argues a new report published by the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security on alliance collaboration in this space and steps to enhance strategic deterrence (link).

New Partnerships Push At 2026 ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meets

What’s Behind It

• Southeast Asia ministers and key powers convened for the latest round of ASEAN-related senior meetings which took place alongside several flashpoint-related developments1. Of particular note was evolving responses to South China Sea skirmishes between Manila and Beijing over the past week just ahead of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s annual State of the Nation Address (SONA), including publicizing of a phone call between Marcos and U.S. President Donald Trump which explicitly noted that Trump “will take up the concerns of the Philippines in his next meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.”2 This follows what officials have previously privately characterized as quieter U.S.-Philippine alliance activation efforts including response to the positioning of a Chinese platform earlier this year3.

Select Key Recent Geopolitical Developments Related to Southeast Asia Amid Recent Round of ASEAN Meetings

• The meetings also saw officials discussing ideas for geoeconomic collaboration in response to global crises. To take just one example that flew largely under the radar relatively speaking, there was renewed discussion about new pathways for emergency assistance for countries struggling to manage the fallout from Middle East conflict, including more targeted, sectoral avenues4. These conversations occurred alongside announcements that highlighted intensifying global interest in engaging Southeast Asia regionally from the other parts of the world, such as the official elevation of Turkey as one of just 12 full dialogue partners (following the UK’s post-Brexit addition in 2021) as well as Germany and Qatar as sectoral partners within a tiered partnership system5.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted policy datapoints to watch with wider implications (see two separate, originally generated ASEAN Wonk tables below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

New Policy Datapoints, Along With Strategic Dimensions And Key Partners

Read more

INTRODUCTION

ASEAN Wonk: Welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, where we bring you expert insights and regional perspectives on Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific geopolitics and geoeconomics. I’m your host Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. If you haven’t already, do subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk platform at www.aseanwonk.com so you don’t miss our full posts.

Our guest today is Julio “July” Amador, who was a civil servant in the Philippine government for more than a decade and now helps lead various organizations, including Fulbright Philippines, the Foundation for the National Interest, and FACTS Asia. We’ll start our conversation talking through current developments, including the South China Sea arbitral tribunal ruling anniversary and major power developments during the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship. Be sure to stay tuned as we go through a range of other subjects, including the future of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, minilateral networking and evolving domestic political dynamics in the Philippines.

Note: The transcript that follows the above free clip preview has been lightly edited for clarity and organized into sections for ease of quick browsing. For all ASEAN Wonk Podcast episodes, full video and audio podcasts, along with edited and sectioned transcripts as well as block quotes, will be a premium product for our paying subscribers, but we will include a short free transcript preview and a clip for all readers to maintain accessibility. Paying subscribers can find the rest of the full transcript and the full video podcast right below the paywall. If you have not already, do consider subscribing, and, if you have already done so and like what you see and hear, do consider forwarding this to others as well who may be interested. Thank you for your support as always!

SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER THE RULING ANNIVERSARY

ASEAN Wonk: So welcome to the podcast July, and let’s start, if we can, on the South China Sea with us having seen recently the July 12th tribunal decision anniversary on the Philippines’ South China Sea case. You convened one of several commemorative events, and if I’m not mistaken, this is the first Track 1.5 initiative of its kind focused on ASEAN perspectives on this question outside of the Philippines held in Jakarta. We spoke a little bit earlier and you were saying it’s really important to engage more on this topic with respect to other Southeast Asian states, and also view this from a little bit more of a comprehensive perspective, looking at this not just from a security prism – whether it’s the South China Sea or the first island chain or the Taiwan Strait. What is your sense of how the anniversary played out and the regional perceptions on the ground on that front based on your conversations?

Julio Amador: Well, first of all, Prashanth, thank you for the invitation to join your podcast, and, of course, hello to all the listeners of ASEAN Wonk. I’m really glad to be here and, of course, to answer all of these questions related to the arbitral tribunal anniversary. This is the tenth anniversary of a very important and critical ruling, not only for the Philippines, but for the Southeast Asian region in general and also, of course, for those of us who advocate for international law. And now the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea is a very important framework for Southeast Asia because many of us are archipelagic and maritime countries, and as such, we need the rule of law to govern our occasionally feisty relationships not only within ASEAN, but also with our neighbors, including those neighbors that may not be directly within the boundaries of our region but have an enduring interest in the safety and the security of the maritime areas, and, of course, the sea lines of communication.

So we organized the conference in Jakarta because I personally believe that the Philippines needs to convince but even listen to its neighbors in Southeast Asia with regard to the arbitration. Because if you recall the history of it in Southeast Asia, the Philippines launched this initiative, these proceedings against China in The Hague. One of the common complaints that you would hear is that the Philippines did not consult its Southeast Asian neighbors. That, I think, was a legal strategy. But now that we have this award, it’s very clear from those who are experts on international law that, first of all, this award is binding particularly on the Philippines and China. But at the same time, the award can become normative for the region because its many rulings can apply to the various maritime boundary delimitations and features in the various contested maritime domains within Southeast Asia and their immediate neighbors. In fact, we know that Indonesia has been using the ruling for negotiations with its own neighbors for their boundary delimitation. So we believe that the Philippines has a special task in convincing the region about the righteousness of this award and how that is applicable as a way of peacefully settling disputes within ASEAN and within the wider Southeast Asia. So this is why we believe that the commemorative conference would have had more impact if it was held outside of the Philippines and if it would consider also views not only from ASEAN, but even from our other neighboring countries. So that was the reason behind this initiative.

ASSESSING THE PHILIPPINES ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP YEAR SO FAR

ASEAN Wonk: Just to double click a bit on the point you made on the regional dimension of Philippine foreign policy: we’ve just seen the recent round of ministerial meetings playing out with the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship this week. Obviously, it’s one of several factors – as you know having served in government before – of Philippine foreign policy, and if we define it comprehensively, this is one of several facets of Philippine foreign policy. How would you assess or what are the metrics you would use to analyze the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship so far?

Julio Amador: That’s a great question because we’re halfway there when it comes to the chairmanship. And some things to be remembered. First of all, the Philippines did volunteer to chair earlier because of Myanmar. So that has to be factored in when it comes to assessing whether the Philippines has been successful or not. But I think, in general, I would say that, facing a plethora of crises through its chairmanship – you have South China Sea, you have Myanmar, you have the Middle East crisis, including among others, the energy crisis that it has sparked – I think I sometimes wonder how the Philippine government is getting through all of this. Because, of course, you do not foresee crises happening, right, at the start of your chairmanship? But when this happens, you have to be agile enough to take them into account and that they have to be prioritized as well given the bigger and wider implications of those crises, not only on the Philippines, but on the wider region. And when all of these crises are hitting you, prioritizing becomes an issue.

So in that sense, also running government while chairing ASEAN I would think is a double challenge for those who are chairing ASEAN. And as you have seen, Philippine domestic politics is not the most boring in the region. With that being said, with those caveats, I believe the Philippine chairmanship is going as well as it could. Handling not only the daily concerns of ASEAN, but also the crisis moments that have been emerging that I have discussed earlier. But people forget that managing ASEAN is a very complex process. You’re looking at trying to balance some of the most powerful countries in the world, right? I mean, in many ways, in using many metrics, you have the United States, China, Russia, and then you have the European Union, of course, you have Japan, India, Australia, and so on. These are not easy tasks. The challenge of trying to bridge the gap or trying to convene great powers with various interests so to speak, and with differing purposes as to why they participate in Southeast Asian affairs is a daunting task for any country, and I don’t think the Philippines is an exception to that.

So having said all of that, the process has been going on well enough to be able to say that there have been some concrete accomplishments, right? On the ASEAN economic front, you have the adoption of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, which is critical and which has been something that the Philippines has wanted to accomplish. Now on the political security front, despite the many challenges, I think the Department of Foreign Affairs has been doing some hard work, for example, on Myanmar. And, of course, there will always be disagreements on how it’s going to be done, but it’s not as if it’s the Philippines that holds the key to many of these problems. We don’t even want to talk about the Thai-Cambodian disputes precisely because both countries have different ways of approaching it. And this is a criticism of ASEAN. ASEAN doesn’t seem to be the first point of reference for trying to manage the disputes. Now I think the more important question is what happens to the proposed code of conduct? And I, for one, don’t foresee that coming this year. But I think we also have to appreciate the efforts being given by all of the negotiating states, including among others monthly meetings to try to come up with something solid on this front. Of course, I don’t think it’s going to happen – having an actual code – but I think the process is as important as the outcome in this case.

ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE US-PHILIPPINE ALLIANCE

ASEAN Wonk: The other piece you referenced a little bit earlier as well with respect to the conversation about major power dynamics is the U. S.-Philippine alliance itself. What is your sense of how the alliance is evolving thus far and the mix of inroads relative to challenges? In terms of the defense sites, in terms of foundational security agreements, in terms of traction on flashpoint management, I think we have seen progress. If you look at things like the Luzon Economic Corridor, if you look at minilateral security networking with Japan and other countries, they’ve moved slower than some alliance advocates would have liked. What’s your assessment of how the alliance is doing thus far beyond everyday flashpoint management and those narrower metrics?

Julio Amador: Oh boy am I going to get in trouble with some of the things I’m going to say, but what’s life without these things? Yeah. I mean, look. Some officials have described the alliance as something on hyperdrive right? I mean, it’s consistently going out there, strongest it’s ever been. And I don’t deny that particularly in the defense and military relationship – in those particular aspects, I don’t deny the strength of the alliance. And I agree that it’s the strongest that it’s ever been and that the coordination on that front has evolved to an extent that I couldn’t have imagined ten years ago. So I do believe that on the military relationship, things are very positive.

Now the question I’ve always had is about alliance management because there are no strong or concrete institutional aspects to alliance management, and some of these are quite nascent. The bilateral strategic dialogue (BSD) was put in place about a decade ago precisely to provide senior level management over alliance relations right? And the BSD was always a prelude to the two plus two ministerial meeting which provides the highest levels of alliance management so far – if you look at the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) itself, you don’t see any of those mechanisms because what we have in the Mutual Defense Treaty is a council of foreign ministers – but given the evolving character of the challenges that the alliance is facing, having a two-plus-two I would argue is a better mechanism. Please remember that if we look at the MDT strictly, the two-plus- two was never envisioned – but, you know, we deal with what we are given – having the BSD in place is quite important because that senior level management over alliance matters is quite critical. There was a joke before that the problem with the Philippine-US alliance that it was left to the hands of colonels because of the Mutual Defense Board and Security Engagement Board. And these are very capable colonels, mind you. What has always been missing is the policy oversight, and the alliance has managed to create this in the process over the years to respond to the challenges. And slow to be sure, but, you know, it’s better organized than before, I would say.

WHAT TO WATCH AHEAD ON SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY INTO 2027

ASEAN Wonk: The point you made earlier about where the alliance is and where flashpoint management is on South China Sea and ASEAN leads to the question of upcoming datapoints. President Marcos is going to have his State of the Nation Address (SONA) in the next few days were he’ll outline a series of priorities for the rest of the year into 2027. But from more foreign and security policy lens, what are you watching in terms of data points for the rest of the year into 2027 beyond the headlines of the day?

Julio Amador: Yeah, and I think…

[Note: This is the end of a free preview podcast, with the full version in an earlier post published on July 23, 2026 available to our paying subscribers. This is not meant to serve as new content and is part of our free preview content within the dedicated website podcast section].

ASEAN Wonk: Welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, where we bring you expert insights and regional perspectives on Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific geopolitics and geoeconomics. I'm your host Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. If you haven’t already, do subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk platform at www.aseanwonk.com so you don’t miss our full posts.

Our guest today is Julio “July” Amador, who was a civil servant in the Philippine government for more than a decade and now helps lead various organizations, including Fulbright Philippines, the Foundation for the National Interest, and FACTS Asia. We’ll start our conversation talking through current developments, including the South China Sea arbitral tribunal ruling anniversary and major power developments during the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship. Be sure to stay tuned as we go through a range of other subjects, including the future of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, minilateral networking and evolving domestic political dynamics in the Philippines.

Note: The transcript that follows the above free clip preview has been lightly edited for clarity and organized into sections for ease of quick browsing. For all ASEAN Wonk Podcast episodes, full video and audio podcasts, along with edited and sectioned transcripts as well as block quotes, will be a premium product for our paying subscribers, but we will include a short free transcript preview and a clip for all readers to maintain accessibility. Paying subscribers can find the rest of the full transcript and the full video podcast right below the paywall. If you have not already, do consider subscribing, and, if you have already done so and like what you see and hear, do consider forwarding this to others as well who may be interested. Thank you for your support as always!

SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER THE RULING ANNIVERSARY

ASEAN Wonk: So welcome to the podcast July, and let’s start, if we can, on the South China Sea with us having seen recently the July 12th tribunal decision anniversary on the Philippines’ South China Sea case. You convened one of several commemorative events, and if I’m not mistaken, this is the first Track 1.5 initiative of its kind focused on ASEAN perspectives on this question outside of the Philippines held in Jakarta. We spoke a little bit earlier and you were saying it’s really important to engage more on this topic with respect to other Southeast Asian states, and also view this from a little bit more of a comprehensive perspective, looking at this not just from a security prism – whether it’s the South China Sea or the first island chain or the Taiwan Strait. What is your sense of how the anniversary played out and the regional perceptions on the ground on that front based on your conversations?

Julio Amador: Well, first of all, Prashanth, thank you for the invitation to join your podcast, and, of course, hello to all the listeners of ASEAN Wonk. I’m really glad to be here and, of course, to answer all of these questions related to the arbitral tribunal anniversary. This is the tenth anniversary of a very important and critical ruling, not only for the Philippines, but for the Southeast Asian region in general and also, of course, for those of us who advocate for international law. And now the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea is a very important framework for Southeast Asia because many of us are archipelagic and maritime countries, and as such, we need the rule of law to govern our occasionally feisty relationships not only within ASEAN, but also with our neighbors, including those neighbors that may not be directly within the boundaries of our region but have an enduring interest in the safety and the security of the maritime areas, and, of course, the sea lines of communication.

So we organized the conference in Jakarta because I personally believe that the Philippines needs to convince but even listen to its neighbors in Southeast Asia with regard to the arbitration. Because if you recall the history of it in Southeast Asia, the Philippines launched this initiative, these proceedings against China in The Hague. One of the common complaints that you would hear is that the Philippines did not consult its Southeast Asian neighbors. That, I think, was a legal strategy. But now that we have this award, it’s very clear from those who are experts on international law that, first of all, this award is binding particularly on the Philippines and China. But at the same time, the award can become normative for the region because its many rulings can apply to the various maritime boundary delimitations and features in the various contested maritime domains within Southeast Asia and their immediate neighbors. In fact, we know that Indonesia has been using the ruling for negotiations with its own neighbors for their boundary delimitation. So we believe that the Philippines has a special task in convincing the region about the righteousness of this award and how that is applicable as a way of peacefully settling disputes within ASEAN and within the wider Southeast Asia. So this is why we believe that the commemorative conference would have had more impact if it was held outside of the Philippines and if it would consider also views not only from ASEAN, but even from our other neighboring countries. So that was the reason behind this initiative.

THE PHILIPPINES ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP YEAR SO FAR

ASEAN Wonk: Just to double click a bit on the point you made on the regional dimension of Philippine foreign policy: we’ve just seen the recent round of ministerial meetings playing out with the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship this week. Obviously, it’s one of several factors – as you know having served in government before – of Philippine foreign policy. How would you assess or what metrics would you use to analyze the Philippines ASEAN chairmanship so far?

Julio Amador: That’s a great question because we’re halfway there when it comes to the chairmanship. And some things to be remembered. First of all, the Philippines did volunteer to chair earlier because of Myanmar. So that has to be factored in when it comes to assessing whether the Philippines has been successful or not. But I think, in general, I would say that, facing a plethora of crises through its chairmanship – you have South China Sea, you have Myanmar, you have the Middle East crisis, including among others, the energy crisis that it has sparked – I think I sometimes wonder how the Philippine government is getting through all of this. Because, of course, you do not foresee crises happening, right, at the start of your chairmanship? But when this happens, you have to be agile enough to take them into account and that they have to be prioritized as well given the bigger and wider implications of those crises, not only on the Philippines, but on the wider region. And when all of these crises are hitting you, prioritizing becomes an issue.

So in that sense, also running government while chairing ASEAN I would think is a double challenge for those who are chairing ASEAN. And as you have seen, Philippine domestic politics is not the most boring in the region. With that being said, with those caveats, I believe the Philippine chairmanship is going as well as it could. Handling not only the daily concerns of ASEAN, but also the crisis moments that have been emerging that I have discussed earlier. But people forget that managing ASEAN is a very complex process. You’re looking at trying to balance some of the most powerful countries in the world, right? I mean, in many ways, in using many metrics, you have the United States, China, Russia, and then you have the European Union, of course, you have Japan, India, Australia, and so on. These are not easy tasks. The challenge of trying to bridge the gap or trying to convene great powers with various interests so to speak, and with differing purposes as to why they participate in Southeast Asian affairs is a daunting task for any country, and I don’t think the Philippines is an exception to that.

So having said all of that, the process has been going on well enough to be able to say that there have been some concrete accomplishments, right? On the ASEAN economic front, you have the adoption of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, which is critical and which has been something that the Philippines has wanted to accomplish. Now on the political security front, despite the many challenges, I think the Department of Foreign Affairs has been doing some hard work, for example, on Myanmar. And, of course, there will always be disagreements on how it’s going to be done, but it’s not as if it’s the Philippines that holds the key to many of these problems. We don’t even want to talk about the Thai-Cambodian disputes precisely because both countries have different ways of approaching it. And this is a criticism of ASEAN. ASEAN doesn’t seem to be the first point of reference for trying to manage the disputes. Now I think the more important question is what happens to the proposed code of conduct? And I, for one, don’t foresee that coming this year. But I think we also have to appreciate the efforts being given by all of the negotiating states, including among others monthly meetings to try to come up with something solid on this front. Of course, I don’t think it’s going to happen – having an actual code – but I think the process is as important as the outcome in this case.

THE STATE OF THE US-PHILIPPINE ALLIANCE

ASEAN Wonk: The other piece you referenced a little bit earlier as well with respect to the conversation about major power dynamics is the U. S.-Philippine alliance itself. What is your sense of how the alliance is evolving thus far and the mix of inroads relative to challenges? In terms of the defense sites, in terms of foundational security agreements, in terms of traction on flashpoint management, I think we have seen progress. If you look at things like the Luzon Economic Corridor, if you look at minilateral security networking with Japan and other countries, they’ve moved slower than some alliance advocates would have liked. What’s your assessment of how the alliance is doing thus far beyond everyday flashpoint management and those narrower metrics?

Julio Amador: Oh boy am I going to get in trouble with some of the things I’m going to say, but what’s life without these things? Yeah. I mean, look. Some officials have described the alliance as something on hyperdrive right? I mean, it’s consistently going out there, strongest it’s ever been. And I don’t deny that particularly in the defense and military relationship – in those particular aspects, I don’t deny the strength of the alliance. And I agree that it’s the strongest that it’s ever been and that the coordination on that front has evolved to an extent that I couldn’t have imagined ten years ago. So I do believe that on the military relationship, things are very positive.

Now the question I’ve always had is about alliance management because there are no strong or concrete institutional aspects to alliance management, and some of these are quite nascent. The bilateral strategic dialogue (BSD) was put in place about a decade ago precisely to provide senior level management over alliance relations right? And the BSD was always a prelude to the two-plus-two ministerial meeting which provides the highest levels of alliance management – if you look at the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) itself, you don’t see any of those mechanisms because what we have in the Mutual Defense Treaty is a council of foreign ministers – but given the evolving character of the challenges that the alliance is facing, having a two-plus-two I would argue is a better mechanism. Please remember that if we look at the MDT strictly, the two-plus- two was never envisioned – but, you know, we deal with what we are given – having the BSD in place is quite important because that senior level management over alliance matters is quite critical. There was a joke before that the problem with the Philippine-US alliance that it was left to the hands of colonels because of the Mutual Defense Board and Security Engagement Board. And these are very capable colonels, mind you. What has always been missing is the policy oversight, and the alliance has managed to create this in the process over the years to respond to the challenges. And slow to be sure, but, you know, it’s better organized than before, I would say.

WHAT TO WATCH AHEAD ON SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY INTO 2027

ASEAN Wonk: The point you made earlier about where the alliance is and where flashpoint management is on South China Sea and ASEAN leads to the question of upcoming datapoints. President Marcos is going to have his State of the Nation Address (SONA) in the next few days were he’ll outline a series of priorities for the rest of the year into 2027. But from more foreign and security policy lens, what are you watching in terms of datapoints for the rest of the year into 2027 beyond the headlines of the day?

Julio Amador: Yeah, and I think…

CONTINUED TRANSCRIPT AND FULL VIDEO PODCAST EPISODE FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of several regional states joining a new China-initiated artificial intelligence body;

• Mapping of regional developments, including big exercise launch and expanding economic partnership;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as geoeconomic pact first; joint defense declaration and new aviation deal;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including rare earths criticism; digital uptake; media first hype and more;

• And much more!

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,347 words (~11 minutes)

Big Exercise Launch; Expanding Economic Partnership & More

Regional Links; Maritime Disruptions & Disinformation Realities

• “[W]e must do more and turn our existing strengths into power,” warns a new strategy document released by the European Union this month that also characterizes the security of the Indo-Pacific and Europe as “more interlinked than ever” due to dynamics such as China’s assertive behavior across the Taiwan Strait and in the South and East China Seas (link to PDF).

• “For Asia, there is no safe harbor…the resumption of shipping alone cannot restore the confidence that has been lost,” according to a report released by The Asia Group consulting firm on the regional implications of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz which includes five Southeast Asia emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as Asia’s four largest economies (China, India, Japan and South Korea) (link to PDF).

• “[R]esilience in the information domain cannot rest on governments alone,” cautions a new explainer released by the Australian Strategy Policy Institute think tank on potential cooperation between Australia and Japan on state-linked disinformation including areas such as narrative tracking, attribution thresholds and crisis protocols (link).

China AI Body Nets Southeast Asia Gains in Global South Bid

What’s Behind It

• Some Southeast Asian states were included on the list of countries that joined as founding members of a China-initiated global artificial intelligence grouping during a series of meetings held in Shanghai this past week1. The development was unsurprisingly cast as being the latest datapoint in the storyline of competing U.S.-China mechanisms in the artificial intelligence domain in the Global South and the world more generally, with Washington continuing to develop initiatives of its own including a recently publicized new ministerial dialogue with Southeast Asian states2.

Select Key Recent China Related Developments with Southeast Asia Alongside World AI Conference

• The engagements came alongside other related sectoral developments in the region. While China was keen to highlight new capacity-building announcements coming out of the AI engagements in Shanghai this past week, Beijing also had to simultaneously respond to allegations by the Philippines surrounding AI-generated material depicting the Filipinos as monkeys concerning the 2016 South China Sea arbitral tribunal award anniversary, which Chinese officials portrayed in response as not being an official government act3. Meanwhile, in mainland Southeast Asia, Vietnam led a stream of regional announcements with its bid to host an international AI competition out to 2027 with partners including the UN, following the recent release of designated high-risk AI systems in sectors like critical infrastructure and autonomous driving4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted policy datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

New Policy Datapoints, Along With Major Artificial Intelligence Areas And Select Key Actors

Read more

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of commemorations around the tenth anniversary of the South China Sea arbitral tribunal award and their strategic implications;

• Mapping of regional developments, including new Indo-Pacific summit diplomacy and new dialogue partner status in Southeast Asia;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new artificial intelligence risk disclosure; illegal China influence claim; and coming military space center development;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including twin China infrastructure inroads; major rare earths partnership launch and new media ecosystem metrics and more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a new book by a longtime government advisor on futures in US military strategy and implications for individual regions including the Indo-Pacific.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,278 words (~10 minutes)

Indo-Pacific Summit Diplomacy; New Dialogue Partner Status & More

Diverging Global Investment Patterns; Partnership Futures & Cyber Accountability Mechanisms

• “Investment has stalled in Europe, shifted in the United States, and pulled away from the pack in China,” according to a new report by the McKinsey Global Institute which examines diverging global investment patterns and levers for countries to boost competitiveness including changes in production factors, innovation, specialization (link).

Graphic Showing Gross Productive Investment by Economy and Sector (By Percent)

• “Southeast Asia’s digital economies are booming, yet a gap persists between ambitious growth and the tools and frameworks needed to govern cyberspace responsibly,” argues a new report released by the Stimson Center on cyber accountability — focused on Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam — suggesting a number of recommendations across areas like capacity-building and international law (link).

• “Japan will advance these efforts by working closely with the partner countries, including Timor-Leste to provide the cooperation tailored to their needs and continue to fulfill its responsibilities in building an international order,” according to a new commentary published by Japan’s ambassador to Timor-Leste in the country’s official state run news agency TATOLI addressing the state of bilateral ties within the context of evolving regional dynamics including Japan’s own update to its free and open Indo-Pacific approach under the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (link).

New South China Sea Statement Marks Arbitral Award Milestone

What’s Behind It

• A joint statement by over a dozen countries was among a series of datapoints commemorating a key datapoint in the South China Sea disputes1. The marking of the tenth anniversary of the 2016 arbitral tribunal award — accompanied by commemorative engagements in some key Indo-Pacific capitals as well as in the Philippines featuring top officials including President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — came amid a series of other global maritime-related developments. This included the adoption of a new resolution on protecting vital shipping lanes co-sponsored by dozens of other countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore from within Southeast Asia, with the objective being deemed as “never been more critical” reflecting regional anxieties on this front2.

• The development came alongside wider scrutiny around flashpoint management. Regionally, Southeast Asian ministers have had to address concerns around the lack of specific timelines and benchmarks being used to hold Myanmar’s government accountable amid scheduled informal consultations this past week leading up to the next round of ASEAN summitry later this year3. Globally, there have also been a flurry of statements released from some Southeast Asian governments following a return this past week to hostilities between Iran and the United States, following earlier attention to aspects such as the extent and degree of representation from individual Southeast Asian countries at the state funeral for Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Policy Datapoints, Along With Select Issue Aspects And Key Domains

Read more

WonkCount: 1,247 words (~6 minutes)

Review: The Future of US Defense Strategy And Asia Stakes

Context

“The United States plays an important role in maintaining the regional balance of power,” Thailand’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said in public remarks as part of a postponed visit to the recently renamed Pacific Command in Hawaii1. The trip, which came following a series of U.S. 250th anniversary commemorations during the previous week, highlighted ongoing questions around the future of U.S. defense strategy and the stakes for Asia including regions such as Southeast Asia2.

Select Key Recent U.S.-Related Security Developments Concerning Asia

A timely new book To Dare Mighty Things by longtime government advisor and scholar Michael O’Hanlon provides insights into how Asia may fit into shifting U.S. defense strategy futures3. In doing so, it adds to a series of recent books delving deeper into the dynamics of U.S. defense strategy both in general as well as with respect to individual flashpoints, including ones we have reviewed previously on ASEAN Wonk. “The stretch of continuity…may be changing,” the book notes before going on to define some of the dimensions of continuity and change and suggested futures for U.S. defense policy in key global regions including Asia4.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Notable Additional Details, Along With Future Policy Approaches And Key Defense Dimensions

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For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a new “might makes right” alert call issued at a key recent forum;

• Mapping of regional developments, including new strategic partnership addition and first ministerial dialogue;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as megaproject recalibration; new fighter jet deal and cross-border project delay;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including submarine cable bid; cyber command kickoff and new trade deal;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a recent book from a former army major general on new lessons and innovations that could shape regional and global conflict futures.

This Week’s WonkCount: 1,947 words (~9 minutes)

New Strategic Partnership Addition; First Ministerial Voyage & More

Fragmentation Realities; Artificial Intelligence Safeguards & Indo-Pacific Expertise Spotlight

• “[W]hen it comes to the details of implementation, alignment among EU capitals is still lacking,” argues a new report released by the European Think-Tank Network on China which includes survey data on how European countries are navigating China’s as a technological power (link).

Visualization of Survey Findings on Country Willingness to Use Policy Tools to Manage Relations with China

• “As AI agents…increasingly carry out tasks autonomously and at speed beyond practical human intervention, financial institutions need real-time safeguards,” according to a new white paper released by the Monetary Authority on Singapore along with key financial institutions and fintechs (link).

Depiction of AI Agent and Ecosystem Safeguards for Agentic Finance at Runtime or SAFR

• “Despite 15 years of emphasis on the growing threat posed by China and the strategic importance of the broader Indo-Pacific region across presidential administrations, focus on the theater among the U.S. armed Services remains uneven,” notes a new study released by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments on regional expertise in the U.S. armed forces (link).

New Might Makes Right Alert at 2026 Asia-Pacific Roundtable

What’s Behind It

• A new alert on the rise of “might makes right” approaches was issued at a key regional forum this past week1. The alert by Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at this year’s iteration of the Asia-Pacific Roundtable (APR) in Kuala Lumpur — following from other expressions of anxiety by regional officials earlier this year — came alongside other events convened in the regional calendar this past week2. These included expert working group meetings under the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) banner as well as the holding of a global conference on sustainable development ahead of IMF and World Bank meetings scheduled to be hosted in Bangkok later this year as well3.

Select Key Recent Geopolitical and Geoeconomic-Related Developments in Southeast Asia

• The alert also highlighted shifting flashpoint dynamics at play with wider Indo-Pacific and global implications. On the outlook for key regional geopolitical flashpoints for instance, Anwar argued that recent leader engagements had revealed that “the devil is in the details” with respect to a long-mulled regional South China Sea code of conduct with China and that there was the necessity for a “more pragmatic” approach to Myanmar by Southeast Asian states amid other “geopolitical and geoeconomic fluctuations” that have been increasingly consuming the region4.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted ongoing policy dynamics and details with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Notable Additional Details, Along With Ongoing Policy Dynamics And Select Strategic Issues

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WonkCount: 1,257 words (~6 minutes)

Review: Conflict Futures in Asia Beyond Russia-Ukraine War

Context

“The situation Taiwan has been in since last year resembles the conditions before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” a senior official noted earlier this year1. The comments were just one of many that highlight how in spite of public and private government engagements with Russia and Ukraine to varying degrees as seen in the recent ASEAN-Russia summit in Kazan, broader strategic questions continue to loom over how the Russia-Ukraine War may affect military strategy and conflict futures. These include policy debates over the lessons being internalized by China’s military as well as quieter global conversations across communities such as drone manufacturers on supply chains and modern warfare2.

Select Key Recent Global and Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Developments

A recent book The War for Ukraine by former Australian army major general Mick Ryan argues that there are already lessons emerging from the Russia-Ukraine War that could have major implications for the future of war including in the Indo-Pacific region3. In doing so, it provides a rare book-length practitioner’s view that situates the Ukraine war within a broader historical and global perspective of military strategy, in addition to other accounts based on ground reporting such as Yaroslav Trofimov’s Our Enemies Will Vanish4. “[T]he People’s Liberation Army is not the only military institution far from Europe that is studying the war,” the book cautions before delving into some of the key lessons and innovations that are likely to drive changes in the character of future conflict5.

Analysis

The book also highlights key datapoints to watch on potential futures (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of important contours. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).

Change Datapoints to Watch, Along With Select Strategic Areas And Major Military Aspects

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For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of new expansion talk at a key trade agreement meeting;

• Mapping of regional developments, including strategic partnership review and coming chairmanship showcase;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as semiconductor center launch; infrastructure competition and trade deal talk;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including submarine contract hype; cyber alliance; currency pact & more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a new book on China’s rule-making in the global geoeconomic order.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,157 words (~10 minutes)

Partnership Review; Chairmanship Showcase & More

Coercion Targeting; Expanding Diplomacy & Indian Ocean Stakes

• “The targeted entities include both foreign governments and foreign private firms,” notes a new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research on the differential impacts of countries targeting government and foreign private firms for geoeconomic coercion (link).

Depiction of Hegemonic Geoeconomic Coercion Model

• “Diversification…reflects an effort to widen Malaysia’s economic options,” according to a new analysis of Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s recent stops in Russia and Central Asia and the implications for the country’s economic diplomacy (link).

“The strategic significance of the Indian Ocean remains overlooked and under-conceptualized in national defense strategy,” argues a new commentary recently published by the Perth USAsia Center as part of a broader op-ed series on Australia’s stakes in the Indian Ocean within the wider Indo-Pacific (link).

New Geoeconomic Expansion Talk at 2026 CPTPP Trade Meet

What’s Behind It

• Geoeconomic expansion was among the agenda items in the spotlight during the recent meeting of members of the trade agreement known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)1. The meeting took place alongside several other regional and global geoeconomic developments as the dust settled following the recent Russia-ASEAN summit held in Kazan2. Among them was the convening of the latest in the annual calendar of World Economic Forum meetings held in Dalian, China, featuring closely watched remarks by business leaders and officials including China’s premier Li Qiang3.

Select Key Recent Indo-Pacific and Global Geoeconomic Developments Amid New CPTPP Meet

• The meeting saw officials take stock of global and Indo-Pacific stakes in key geoeconomic sectors. These included explicit recognition of Japan’s energy security initiatives in Southeast Asia following the Middle East conflict fallout over the past few months as well as the vulnerabilities of small-island developing countries in the Pacific Islands to significant global supply chain disruptions4. These stakes have also been at play in wider discussions among officials, including how best to reach and revise narrower, sector-specific understandings that can help to more flexibly account for new geoeconomic realities5.

Why It Matters

• The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).

Future Policy Datapoints to Watch, Along With Select Major Priorities And Key Focus Areas

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